LATAM: US Strikes On Venezuelan Targets Could Mark Biggest Escalation Since '89
As noted previously (see US TSYS: Paring Losses As Pres Trump Decides to Target Venezuela Military Sites and LATAM: US Reported To Be Planning Strikes On Military Sites In Venezuela), reports suggesting that the Trump administration has actively made the decision to target Venezuelan military sites as part of its anti-cartel operations in Latin America mark a significant escalation. The Miami Herald reports, "the targets — which could be struck by air in a matter of days or even hours — also aim to decapitate the cartel’s hierarchy. U.S. officials believe the cartel exports around 500 tons of cocaine yearly, split between Europe and the United States. While sources declined to say whether Maduro himself is a target, one of them said his time is running out."
- US forces in the region have engaged in maritime operations primarily targeting fast boats, the White House claims were being used to traffic drugs. However, the report claims that this has seen the cartels become less willing to operate at sea, requiring the US task force to shift its focus to land-based targets. Miami Herald: "The sheer scale of the deployment has led many analysts to conclude that the mission’s ultimate aim is the removal of the Maduro regime, though U.S. officials have provided few specifics about any planned actions inside Venezuela."
- Any ground action could mark the largest US military incursion into Latin America since the DEA-led anti-narcotics 'Operation Snowcap' that ran in nations across the region until 1995, or even the invasion of Panama in 1989.
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US DATA: ADP Shows Pay, Cyclical Sector Employment Deteriorating (2/2)
While we take the magnitude of the drop in September's ADP payrolls with a grain of salt given the rebenchmarking impact on the overall sequential change, the data showed widespread weakness across multiple sectors.
- Goods payrolls fell 3k for the first contraction in 4 months, with services down 28k, worst in 3 months and now marking a third drop in 4. Of 10 covered sectors, just three (natural resources +4k, info tech +3k, education and health +33k) were positive.
- The education and health gain was particularly interesting given a long streak of large underperformance vs the BLS series- it's now appearing to catch back up (see chart). But this is a non-cyclical sector so its recent improvement may flatter the broader perspective.
- Payrolls in leisure and hospitality a classic cyclical sector that was red hot during the pandemic reopening - were down for the first time since February 2024 (weakness that was echoed in the latest JOLTS data too), while construction employment is looking increasingly precarious with the first contraction since July 2021 in a sector beleaguered by weak activity.
- Large businesses continued to hire (+33k for companies with 500+ employees), but contractions were seen across the four categories of businesses sized smaller than that.
- The associated September Pay Insights also showed weakness outside of the raw number and it's unlikely to have been impacted by the numerical rebenchmarking. Job changers saw just 6.6% wage growth, joint-lowest since February 2021 (7.1% prior), led by "leisure and hospitality and financial activities", though for job stayers it ticked up 0.1pp to 4.5%.
EGB OPTIONS: Large Bund Call Spread
RXX5 129/129.50cs, bought for 17 in 5k and 15 in 12k, looking at volumes close to 20k have been done.
US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Call Buyers Pre/Post Data
Better SOFR/Treasury call volumes pre/post ADP driven rally in the underlying, curves bull steepen: 2s10s +1.315 at 55.306. Projected rate cut pricing gaining vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Oct'25 at -25.3bp (-24.2bp), Dec'25 at -47.6bp (-44.2bp), Jan'26 at -57.8bp (-53.7bp), Mar'26 at -68.8bp (-64.7bp).
- SOFR Options:
- -7,000 SFRZ5 95.93/96.06/96.18/96.31 call condors, 3.25
- Block, 6,250 SFRZ5 96.50 calls, 3.75 ref 96.36
- over +59,000 SFRZ5 96.06/96.12 put spds, 0.75 ref 96.32/0.05%
- 3,800 SFRG6 96.75 calls ref 96.515
- +2,500 0QX5 96.75 puts, 5.0 vs. 96.92/0.29%
- +1,500 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50 call flys, 4.75 vs. 96.33/0.08%
- -1,500 0QZ5 96.87 straddles, 30.5
- +2,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.31/96.50/96.56 call condors, 3.5 vs. 96.325/0.07%
- 5,200 SFRH6 96.12/96.25/96.50/96.75 call condors
- Treasury Options:
- over 5,000 TYZ5 113/113.5/114 call trees (Note: yesterday's continuation of low delta call buying: over 186k TYZ5 113 calls, OI +133,664; over 65.3k TYZ5 113.5 calls, OI +22,147; over 108k TYZ5 114 calls, OI +20,739)
- 7,000 TYX5 112 puts, 16 last
- +2,000 TYX5 114/TYZ 114.5 call diagonal, 9 net/Dec over
- 2,000 TYX 114/114.5 call spds ref 112-20
- 5,500 FVX5 109.75 calls, 11 ref 109-07.25
- 5,500 TYX5 113 calls, 24 ref 112-16
- +1,500 TYZ5 113/114/115 call flys, 8 vs. 112-10/0.05%
- -2,000 FVX5 108/109 put spds, 14.5 vs. 109-08.25/0.08%
- 2,500 Wed wkly 112.75 calls, 2 ref 112-16 (expire today)
