US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™ - Progressed To 43.8 In October
The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, progressed 3.2 points to 43.8 in October. The index is now back above the 2025 average of 43.1. However, the index has remained below 50 for twenty-three consecutive months.
- The increase was mainly driven by a rebound in New Orders, alongside rises in Production and Order Backlogs. All Business Activity subcomponents increased in October.
- New Orders expanded 6.2 points, unwinding the majority of September’s fall. This was the first gain in New Orders since July.
- Production strengthened 3.8 points, now sitting at similar levels to May, though the index has been below 50 since March.
- Order Backlogs advanced 5.4 points, bringing the index to its highest level since November 2023. The proportion of respondents reporting smaller Order Backlogs dropped to its lowest since June 2022.
- Supplier Deliveries increased 1.4 points, but remained below August levels. The index has been above 50 for nine consecutive months.
- Employment was virtually unchanged, rising 1.3 points. The proportion of respondents reporting larger Employment is at its lowest since February.
- Inventories jumped 12.0 points, more than reversing the previous two months’ declines. The index is now at its highest since May.
- Prices Paid grew 1.3 points.
- The survey ran from October 1 to October 14.
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EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 0.8694 @ 14:39 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 0.8667/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP has pulled back from its recent highs - a correction. A bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8667, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Pivot Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17
- RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 1.3537 High Sep 23 and a pivot level
- PRICE: 1.3525 @ 14:36 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
The bear cycle in GBPUSD that started Sep 17, remains in play and the latest bounce - for now - appears corrective. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high and a pivot level. A break of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. Recent weakness resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low.
US DATA: Construction Spending The First Test Of Shutdown Data (Non-) Releases
The first test of the federal government shutdown's impact on data releases will come at 1000ET when the Census Bureau is due to release the monthly Construction Spending report for August. While there is some uncertainty, it's unlikely to be published.
- The only "confirmation" since the shutdown started last night that we have had of whether data will be published has come from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which posted a notice this morning that it "will be able to operate for a period of time during the lapse in appropriations. Until further notice, the EIA.gov website will continue to be updated, and publications will continue to be released according to established schedules. EIA will continue collecting energy data from survey respondents as scheduled."
- We don't expect any other "official" confirmation of other federal data cancellations, as theoretically there are no non-essential employees at the agencies to available to publish any notices.
- However the individual shutdown contingency plans at the major government agencies each say that there will be no data updates, including for the BLS (nonfarm payrolls, CPI), with the Labor Secretary verbally confirming that there would be no releases in a news show appearance Tuesday.
- For example you have to look under the Commerce Dept's shutdown document to see that for the Census Bureau (which publishes Construction spending): "Economic Indicators: U.S. monthly economic indicators would not be available. " But on the Census.gov site it still shows the data as publishing today.
- The "official" schedules are likely to remain unchanged on the websites until after the shutdown is over.
- The next "test" will be Thursday at 0830 when weekly jobless claims are scheduled. The Department of Labor's shutdown plans suggest there will be no weekly jobless claims reports published. But these were published in 2013's shutdown, as while they were compiled and released by the BLS, they use state-by-state data. Again, we don't expect to get a release this week.
