MNI ASIA OPEN: Focus on Headline NFP, Wkly ADP, S&P Flash PMIs

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Payrolls Preview
• MNI FED: CNBC Sources Say Hasset Candidacy Receiving Pushback
• MNI FED: NY's Williams Indicates Support For Slower Cutting Pace Ahead
• MNI US DATA: BLS Sees Higher Standard Errors In Delayed November Household Survey
• MNI US DATA: Empire Manufacturing Activity Weaker, But Inflation Signals Mixed

US

MNI FED: Gov Miran: Market-Based Core Ex-Shelter CPI Argues For Quicker Cuts

Fed Gov Miran follows up his third consecutive dissent in favor of a 50bp cut (vs the 25bp decided) at the December meeting with a speech detailing his views on inflation (link). There are no surprises from the current-biggest dove on the FOMC on his rate outlook: he advocates "a quicker pace of easing policy". 

MNI FED: CNBC Sources Say Hasset Candidacy Receiving Pushback

Latest from CNBC sources on the Fed Chair race: "Kevin Hassett's candidacy for the Federal Reserve chair, once seen by the market as almost a sure thing, has received some pushback by high-level people who have the ear of President Donald Trump, according to sources familiar with the matter."

• "There's concern that the National Economic Council director is too close to the president, the sources said, something that ironically made him the frontrunner to replace current chair Jerome Powell in the first place."

MNI FED: NY's Williams Indicates Support For Slower Cutting Pace Ahead

In a speech called "Resilience", NY Fed President Williams - a dovish-leaning, permanent FOMC voter - says that after the Fed's latest cuts, "monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026." LINK

• Williams of course reignited December rate cut pricing in a speech he gave in November signalling unusually clearly that he saw room for a further cut in the "near term". Here he reverts to his usual communications approach, not revealing much about his rate preferences and in any case not signaling support for a follow-up cut in January.

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Standing Repo Facility Not Worked Well- Miran

The Federal Reserve's standing repo facility hasn't performed up to expectations to cap money market rate pressures, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said Monday. "It's a ceiling tool that hasn't really functioned as a ceiling tool, and there's a variety of diagnoses about what, why that's the case, and what steps would you want to take, if any, to fix it," he said at a Columbia University talk.

NEWS

BLOOMBERG: HASSETT FED CANDIDACY GOT SOME PUSHBACK CLOSE TO TRUMP: CNBC

MNI FRANCE: Senate Approves 2026 Budget Bill As Expected - Not Overtly Positive

The French Senate has voted 187-109 in favour of teh 2026 state budget (PLF). THis isn't a surprise or a necessarily positive development. This is the same budget bill (PLF) that the National Assembly voted 404 to 1 (with 84 abstentions) AGAINST a few weeks ago.

MNI UKRAINE: RTRS-US Off: 'Artcile 5-Like Security Guarantees' Being Discussed

Reuters reports comments from an unnamed US official following the conclusion of two days of talks with the Ukrainian delegation in Berlin. Says that documents relating to security guarantees for Ukraine "have made a lot of progress," describing them as "Article 5-like guarantees" (referring to NATO's Article 5 collective security guarantee).

MNI THAILAND: No Clear Path To Majority Coalition As 8 Feb Election Confirmed

With the Election Commission confirming 8 February as the date for the next general election, attention will turn to the potential outcome of the vote. The latest opinion polling shows an unclear picture. The progressive People's Party (PPLE), the largest party in the House of Representatives, remains the most popular single party according to the latest NIDA survey from early December, with 25.3% support. 

US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Focus on Tuesday's Headline Jobs Data for November, Fed Speakers Absent

• Treasuries look to finish mildly higher Monday, well off midmorning highs to near early evening levels on a Generally quiet session as participants turn focus on Tuesday's heavy data schedule that includes headline NFP for November, weekly ADP, Retail Sales and S&P Global flash PMIs; absence of Fed speakers tomorrow.
• TYH6 trades +4 at 112-09.5 (112-06 low / 112-16.5 high) on just over 1M contracts. Of note, the 2s10s curve however, steepened to 67.661 (+1.682) highest level since mid-Jan 2022.
• Technical resistance at 112-21 (20-day EMA) - a continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and signal scope for an extension towards 111-19, a Fibonacci projection.
• From CNBC sources earlier on the Fed Chair race: "Kevin Hassett's candidacy for the Federal Reserve chair, once seen by the market as almost a sure thing, has received some pushback by high-level people who have the ear of President Donald Trump, according to sources familiar with the matter."
• Fed Gov Miran follows up his third consecutive dissent in favor of a 50bp cut (vs the 25bp decided) at the December meeting with a speech detailing his views on inflation (link). There are no surprises from the current-biggest dove on the FOMC on his rate outlook: he advocates "a quicker pace of easing policy". 

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Payrolls Preview

Re-upping our preview for tomorrow's NFP report plus a correction for the Morgan Stanley estimates in the summary table on page 4: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Nov2025_Preview_postshutdown_392dffc2d3.pdf

MNI US DATA: Empire Manufacturing Activity Weaker, But Inflation Signals Mixed

Manufacturing activity in the greater New York region unexpectedly pulled back in December, per the Empire State Manufacturing Survey's General Business Conditions index dropping to -3.9 from 18.7 prior. That compares to a positive 10.0 expected, and November's reading which was one of the highest in the last 3 years. This starts the month's regional Fed surveys on a cautious note in terms of activity, and while input price pressures are clearly moderating, expected future selling prices notably continued to tick up.

MNI US DATA: BLS Sees Higher Standard Errors In Delayed November Household Survey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has published an FAQ on the impact of the government shutdown on tomorrow's Household Survey for November (reminder they won't release a Household report for October): LINK

MNI CANADA DATA: Services Deceleration Maintains Downside Pressure On Core CPI

The composition of November CPI was in line with MNI's expectations, with core items' moderation - led by services, offset by core goods' stubbornness - contrasting with an acceleration in food and energy prices. On the headline side, overall inflation came in basically as expected at 2.22% (2.3% consensus though lean had been toward the lower side of that unrounded), basically unchanged from 2.16% prior.

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 57.92 points (-0.12%) at 48402.58
S&P E-Mini Future down 12 points (-0.17%) at 6879.25
Nasdaq down 130.7 points (-0.6%) at 23065.06
US 10-Yr yield is down 0.4 bps at 4.1802%
US Mar 10-Yr futures are up 4/32 at 112-9.5
EURUSD up 0.0009 (0.08%) at 1.1749
USDJPY down 0.55 (-0.35%) at 155.26
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.77 (-1.34%) at $56.67
Gold is up $1.55 (0.04%) at $4301.66

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 31.81 points (0.56%) at 5752.52
FTSE 100 up 102.28 points (1.06%) at 9751.31
German DAX up 43.42 points (0.18%) at 24229.91
French CAC 40 up 56.26 points (0.7%) at 8124.88

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

Curve update:
3M10Y -0.868, 55.266 (L: 52.396 / H: 55.876)
2Y10Y +1.473, 67.452 (L: 64.675 / H: 67.661)
2Y30Y +2.475, 134.501 (L: 130.624 / H: 134.607)
5Y30Y +1.653, 111.761 (L: 109.629 / H: 112.126)
Current futures levels:
Mar 2-Yr futures up 1.5/32 at 104-11.25 (L: 104-09.625 / H: 104-12.25)
Mar 5-Yr futures up 2.75/32 at 109-5.75 (L: 109-03 / H: 109-09.75)
Mar 10-Yr futures up 3.5/32 at 112-9 (L: 112-06 / H: 112-16.5)
Mar 30-Yr futures up 8/32 at 114-29 (L: 114-22 / H: 115-11)
Mar Ultra futures up 5/32 at 117-19 (L: 117-14 / H: 118-06)

MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bear Threat

• RES 4: 113-09   76.4% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 112-27+ High Dec 5
• RES 1: 112-21/23 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-11 @ 11:10 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 111-29   Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 111-19   1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 111-11   1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 111-00   Round number support 

A bearish theme in Treasuries remains intact and short-term gains appear corrective. The rally last Thursday topped out at 112-23, meaning resistance at  the 20-day EMA, currently at 112-21, remains intact. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and signal scope for an extension towards 111-19, a Fibonacci projection.

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 +0.003 at 96.293
Mar 26 +0.010 at 96.475
Jun 26 +0.015 at 96.690
Sep 26 +0.025 at 96.835
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) +0.030 to +0.035
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) +0.015 to +0.025
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) +0.005 to +0.010
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) -0.005 to +0.005

REFERENCE RATES
​​​​​​​
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.67% (+0.01), volume: $3.261T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.65% (+0.03), volume: $1.324T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.65% (+0.03), volume: $1.303T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.64% (+0.00), volume: $102B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.64% (+0.00), volume: $174B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage rebounds to $2.601B, counterparties steady at 6 this afternoon, vs. Thursday's $0.838B (lowest level since mid-March 2021). Compares to prior low on November 18 low: $0.905B; this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $1B Willis North America 2Pt Priced

•  Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 12/15 $1B *Willis North America $700M +5Y +85, $300M +10Y +98
• 12/15 $550M Perimeter Holdings 8NC3 6.25%a

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Opening Week Flatter With Event/Data Risk Looming

European curves flattened Monday, with the ECB and BOE decisions looming later in a busy week.

• Gilt and Bund futures traded in ranges seen late last week, as part of a broader global move ahead of significant central bank and data events (US and UK labour market and inflation data).
• After a morning rise, core FI had been set to post stronger gains on the day but pulled back sharply in the last couple of hours ahead of the cash close. There wasn't a clear headline/macro catalyst for either move, overall the moves had a positive correlation with risk assets (a late pullback in stocks was associated with weaker bonds).
• In other developments, the French Senate passed the 2026 budget as expected, while the EU unveiled its H1 2026 funding plan, which includes E90B of bonds.
• The UK curve twist flattened with outperformance at the long end vs Germany, whose curve bull flattened. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads tightened modestly.
• Tuesday's data docket is heavy, with UK labour market data followed by flash December PMIs. MNI's preview of this week's key UK data is here - The labour market and CPI data could pose potential roadblocks but we remain of the view that if data is broadly in line with the BOE's expectation, a cut is likely coming. Elsewhere Tuesday, attention will be on the US employment report for October and November.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.4bps at 2.15%, 5-Yr is up 0.1bps at 2.469%, 10-Yr is down 0.4bps at 2.853%, and 30-Yr is down 0.9bps at 3.472%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.7bps at 3.754%, 5-Yr is down 0.8bps at 3.947%, 10-Yr is down 2.1bps at 4.496%, and 30-Yr is down 2.9bps at 5.239%.
• Italian BTP spread down 1.1bps at 68bps / French OAT down 1.5bps at 70.9bps  

MNI FOREX: AUDJPY and NZDJPY Consolidate Declines as Risk Turns Lower

• The dollar index has traded within a contained range to start the week, as markets look ahead to the long-awaited US employment release on Tuesday. Elsewhere, there was a swift turnaround for risk sentiment following the US cash equity open, with weakness for the major US indices and crypto markets fuelling a brief bout of volatility. AUD and NZD came under pressure here, while the JPY remains among the best performers in G10.
• For USDJPY, initial softness was as a result of the monthly Tankan survey / wage report in Japan, which reinforces the expectations for a BOJ hike on Friday. Lows of the day were recorded at 154.84, before spot subsequently bounced to the 155.40 region ahead of the APAC crossover.
• Below here, the December 05 low at 154.35 and the 50-day EMA at 153.95 represent an important support area as we navigate both the US data releases and BOJ meeting this week.
• NZD had a volatile session but remains at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard today. Newly appointed RBNZ Governor Breman indicated that market conditions have tightened “beyond what is implied by our central projection” for the official cash rate, prompting a dovish repricing. NZDUSD is down 0.36% on Monday, while NZDJPY currently sits 0.7% in the red.
• It’s perhaps not unsurprising that markets see AUD, JPY and NZD as most exposed headed into tomorrow's NFP print, with those currencies posting the largest overnight vol premium headed into Tuesday's November print. This put AUD overnight vols clear of 14 points at today's open for a new December high and the third highest level of the quarter to imply a +/- 40 pip swing in the price into the Tuesday NY cut.
• UK labour market data precedes Eurozone flash PMIs on Tuesday, before the focus turns to the return of US labour market data.

TUESDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
16/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
16/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
16/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
16/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
16/12/2025	0815/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0815/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0830/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0830/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0900/1000	**	IT	Italy Final HICP
16/12/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
16/12/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Services PMI flash
16/12/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
16/12/2025	1000/1100	*	EU	Trade Balance
16/12/2025	1000/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
16/12/2025	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
16/12/2025	1000/1100		IT	Foreign Trade
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/12/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
16/12/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash)
16/12/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
16/12/2025	1500/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
16/12/2025	1500/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
16/12/2025	1730/1230		CA	BOC Gov Macklem speech in Montreal
17/12/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
17/12/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	Brightmine pay deals for whole economy