MNI ASIA OPEN: Eyes on Thursday's September NFP

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MNI BRIEF: Fed's Waller Backs December Rate Cut
• MNI FED: Vice Chair Jefferson: Need To Proceed Slowly On Rates
• MNI US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Payrolls Preview: Better Late Than Never
• MNI US: Majority Leader Thune To Hold Procedural Votes On FY26 Bills This Week
• MNI US DATA: Empire Manufacturing Solidifies For 2nd Consecutive Month
• MNI CANADA DATA: Inflation Seen Softer In October, Big Surprise Needed For BOC Shift
• MNI US DATA: Housing Is Starting To Lead Construction Growth As Data Centers Slow

US

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Waller Backs December Rate Cut

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday the central bank should cut interest rates again next month because the labor market continues to deteriorate, while the inflationary effect of tariffs will be temporary. "With underlying inflation close to the FOMC’s target and evidence of a weak labor market, I support cutting the Committee’s policy rate by another 25 basis points at our December meeting," said Waller, who is on President Donald Trump's short-list to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair next year.

MNI FED: Vice Chair Jefferson: Need To Proceed Slowly On Rates

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson's speech Monday is here. The key quotes are below - he's likely one of the 9 FOMC members who anticipated cutting rates in Sep, Oct and Dec (in his September Dot Plot) and if forced to guess we would think he is still marginally in favor of a December cut and here he again highlights "increased downside risks to employment compared to the upside risks to inflation, which have likely declined somewhat recently".

MNI US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Payrolls Preview: Better Late Than Never

We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Payrolls Preview.  Please find the full report including MNI analysis and analyst views here. The long-awaited nonfarm payrolls report for September will be released on Thursday at 0830ET. Having been collected prior to the government shutdown, this could be the last “conventional” payrolls release of the year with potential for a combined report covering October and November in December.

NEWS

MNI US: Trump Intensifies Pressure On Indiana GOP As Dems Eye Redistricting Edge

US President Donald Trump has reiterated a threat to support primary election challenges against Indiana Republicans who vote against drawing a new congressional map for the state that will be beneficial to the GOP in 2026. A new Indiana map could net the GOP two additional seats in 2026. If the move is blocked by the state legislature, it could hand the initiative to a Democratic counter-move in Virginia.

MNI US: Majority Leader Thune To Hold Procedural Votes On FY26 Bills This Week

The Senate will return on Tuesday for a short week, before departing again on Thursday for the Thanksgiving recess. Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) is expected to tee up procedural votes on the next ‘minibus’ FY2026 appropriations package, including bills funding Defense, Labor-HHS, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Transportation-HUD. 

MNI TARIFFS: India/US Could Soon Agree To Address Reciprocol Tariffs - Indian Off.

Reuters reporting comments from an Indian trade official stating India and the US “could soon agree to address reciprocal tariffs” in the first part of an emerging trade agreement, with the two countries, “likely to address broader trade issues in the second part of the agreement.” The official added that “officials engaged in virtual negotiations to address the concerns of each other.”

MNI CANADA: Gov't Expected To Narrowly Win Budget Vote, Avoid Snap Election

The gov't of PM Mark Carney is expected to narrowly win this evening's vote on the 2026 federal budget, viewed as a confidence vote and risking a snap election if the gov't falls short of a majority. None of the parties is believed to have the campaigning infrastructure ready to go for a December/January election, and for the main opposition centre-right Conservatives in particular, a snap election would risk further losses from their April federal election seat total, according to opinion polls. Vote expected ~18:45ET (23:45GMT, 00:45CET). 

Bloomberg: "UK MULLS OPTIONS TO RETALIATE AGAINST EUROPE OVER STEEL TARIFFS"

US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Gov Generated Data Gradually Resuming, Chip Makers Under Pressure

• Treasuries look to finish modestly higher Monday - inside a relatively narrow session range after scaling back from pre-NY open highs, backlogged economic data gradually starting to flow.
• Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +4 at 112-21 (112-15.5 low / 112-24.5 high), Treasuries last week challenged resistance at the 113-02 level, an area of congestion since Nov 5. This hurdle remains intact, however, a clear move above it would be a bullish signal and shift focus on resistance at 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A break would also cancel a short-term bearish theme. For bears, attention is on 112-10, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low.
• August construction data - whose Oct. 1 release was delayed 6 weeks due to the federal government shutdown - showed a 0.2% M/M rise in spending (-0.1% expected, 0.2% prior rev from -0.1%). The NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey impressed in November, with the current General Business Conditions index rising 8 points to a 1-year high 18.7 (well above the 5.8 expected).
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he's likely one of the 9 FOMC members who anticipated cutting rates in Sep, Oct and Dec (in his September Dot Plot) and if forced to guess we would think he is still marginally in favor of a December cut and here he again highlights "increased downside risks to employment compared to the upside risks to inflation, which have likely declined somewhat recently".
• Stocks hit hard Monday, Chip makers continue to lead late session declines followed by Financial names. Note, Nvidia is expected to release Q3 earnings this Wednesday.
• Tuesday data schedule is light, with markets gearing for the now much-delayed September NFP print due this Thursday. Fed speak: Fed's Barkin is due to comment on the economic outlook having not commented directly on policy since the last Fed decision. Barkin had previously seen less caution around the jobs market given the unlikely circumstance of broad layoffs given such a slow pace of hiring in recent years.

OVERNIGHT DATA

MNI US DATA: Housing Is Starting To Lead Construction Growth As Data Centers Slow

August construction data - whose Oct. 1 release was delayed 6 weeks due to the federal government shutdown - showed a 0.2% M/M rise in spending (-0.1% expected, 0.2% prior rev from -0.1%). Overall construction looks to be stronger on the residential side than it did earlier in the year, boding positively for that side of the GDP equation, with public sector construction also looking solid enough. However, non-residential construction growth has stalled amid policy uncertainty, with even the vaunted data center boom showing signs of moderating over the summer.

MNI US DATA: Empire Manufacturing Solidifies For 2nd Consecutive Month

The NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey impressed in November, with the current General Business Conditions index rising 8 points to a 1-year high 18.7 (well above the 5.8 expected). As such it's the 2nd highest reading since April 2022, with solidly-above-long-term average-readings now for 2 consecutive months, the first time we've seen that since 2021 for this notoriously volatile survey.

MNI CANADA DATA: Inflation Seen Softer In October, Big Surprise Needed For BOC Shift

Re-upping our Canadian CPI (0830ET) preview note with updates sell-side forecasts - in short, inflation pressures are expected to have pulled back in October from September's 7-month high 2.4% Y/Y. Consensus (Bloomberg median) sees October CPI at 2.1% Y/Y (2.4% prior), with M/M at 0.2% (0.1% prior), while the average Median/Trim measure is seen at 3.00% (3.15% prior).

MARKETS SNAPSHOT

Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 570.09 points (-1.21%) at 46578.55
S&P E-Mini Future down 69.5 points (-1.03%) at 6686
Nasdaq down 232.2 points (-1%) at 22670.22
US 10-Yr yield is down 1.6 bps at 4.1328%
US Dec 10-Yr futures are up 3.5/32 at 112-20.5
EURUSD down 0.0032 (-0.28%) at 1.1589
USDJPY up 0.66 (0.43%) at 155.21
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.35 (-0.58%) at $59.74
Gold is down $52.28 (-1.28%) at $4032.68

European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 52.83 points (-0.93%) at 5640.94
FTSE 100 down 22.94 points (-0.24%) at 9675.43
German DAX down 286.03 points (-1.2%) at 23590.52
French CAC 40 down 51.07 points (-0.63%) at 8119.02

US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE

3M10Y -0.217, 26.276 (L: 21.372 / H: 26.471)
2Y10Y -1.141, 52.681 (L: 50.859 / H: 54.659)
2Y30Y -0.887, 112.887 (L: 110.452 / H: 115.399)
5Y30Y -0.249, 101.257 (L: 99.77 / H: 103.003)
Current futures levels:
Dec 2-Yr futures up 0.375/32 at 104-3.125 (L: 104-02.375 / H: 104-04)
Dec 5-Yr futures up 1.25/32 at 109-5.25 (L: 109-03.5 / H: 109-08)
Dec 10-Yr futures up 3/32 at 112-20 (L: 112-15.5 / H: 112-24.5)
Dec 30-Yr futures up 7/32 at 116-23 (L: 116-10 / H: 117-00)
Dec Ultra futures up 5/32 at 120-1 (L: 119-18 / H: 120-15)

MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 114-02   High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 113-29   High Oct 22
• RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
• RES 1: 113-04+ High Nov 14
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-20 @ 1305 ET Nov 17
• SUP 1: 112-10   100-dma
• SUP 2: 112-06   Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 112-05   Trendline support drawn from the May 22 low
• SUP 4: 111-23   50.0% retracement of the May 22 - Oct 17 bull leg  

Treasuries last week challenged resistance at the 113-02 level, an area of congestion since Nov 5. This hurdle remains intact, however, a clear move above it would be a bullish signal and shift focus on resistance at 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A break would also cancel a short-term bearish theme. For bears, attention is on 112-10, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support lies at 112-05.

SOFR FUTURES CLOSE

Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 -0.010 at 96.175
Mar 26 -0.005 at 96.385
Jun 26 steady00 at 96.625
Sep 26 +0.015 at 96.80
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) +0.010 to +0.020
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) +0.015 to +0.015
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) +0.015 to +0.020
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) +0.020 to +0.025

REFERENCE RATES

US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.95% (-0.05), volume: $3.195T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.92% (-0.05), volume: $1.265T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.92% (-0.05), volume: $1.231T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.88% (+0.00), volume: $72B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.88% (+0.01), volume: $157B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage rises to $3.172B with 7 counterparties this afternoon from last Friday's $1.559B - lowest level since mid-March 2021. Compares to this years highest excess liquidity measure off $460.731B on June 30.

MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $15B Amazon 6Pt Launched

Amazon's 6-pt debt the lion's share of $25.55B corporate issuance to price Monday:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 11/17 $15B #Amazon $2.5B 3Y +30, $2.5B 5Y +40, $1.5B +7Y +47, $3.5B 10Y +55, $3B 30Y +75, $2B 40Y +85
• 11/17 $6B #Morgan Stanley $2.35B 3NC2 +80, $650M 3NC2 SOFR+78, $3B 6NC5 +75
• 11/17 $1.5B #Enbridge $500M 3Y +63, $500M +5Y +80, $500M 10Y +110
• 11/17 $900M #Consolidated Edison 30Y +103
• 11/17 $800M #Smurfit Westrock Fin 10Y +105
• 11/17 $750M Molina Health 5.25NC2
• 11/17 $600M #AptarGroup +5Y +105

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Regain Some Ground Vs Steady Bunds

Gilts handily outperformed Bunds Monday, following last week's fiscal-related underperformance.

• After significant bear steepening late last week on UK Chancellor Reeves's reported decision not to raise income tax rates, Gilts initially maintained their weakness relative to Bunds on Monday with little in the way of fresh drivers.
• However Gilts would regain some ground through the cash close, tracking gains in US Treasuries, with Bunds conversely failing to benefit, trading in a relatively narrow range throughout the session.
• That allowed Gilts to outperform on the day though the overall underperformance since last Thursday remains intact (10Y spread/Bund still 7bp wider).
• Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads closed mixed. Greek spreads fell 1.5bp following Friday's not-entirely-unexpected upgrade to BBB from Fitch, though BTPs outperformed overall; OAT spreads closed a little wider.
• Tuesday's calendar includes no tier-one European data, though there will be commentary by ECB's Dolenc and Pereira, and BOE's Pill and Dhingra; the focus of the week is Wednesday's UK CPI release. 

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 2.042%, 5-Yr is down 0.4bps at 2.308%, 10-Yr is down 0.8bps at 2.712%, and 30-Yr is down 0.9bps at 3.31%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 4.6bps at 3.8%, 5-Yr is down 4.7bps at 3.964%, 10-Yr is down 3.9bps at 4.535%, and 30-Yr is down 4.5bps at 5.35%.
• Italian BTP spread down 1.7bps at 73.6bps / Greek down 1.5bps at 61.8bps

MNI FOREX: USDJPY Takes Out Key Resistance; Broadens Upside Range

• PM Sanae Takaichi is due to hold a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Tuesday. This will be the first in-person meeting since Takaichi came to office, and comes as tensions have surfaced between Takaichi’s government and the BoJ. Any perceived pressure being put on the BoJ will be closely scrutinised by markets. This applies especially as further JPY weakness would increase the likelihood for a December BoJ hike which may act counter to Takaichi's dovish fiscal stance.
• The minutes of the RBA's November policy meeting are due - at which comments concerning the labour market will be very closely watched. October employment change data more than doubled median expectations, with a shift to fulltime employment particularly notable - any acknowledgement that a stronger jobs markets could limit RBA easing ahead could have trigger AUD strength. Into the minutes release, AUDUSD is holding above the 0.65 handle, underpinned by the 200-dma support longer-term, last crossing at 0.6457.
• Resultantly, the JPY is the poorest performing currency Monday, while GBP and NOK trade more favourably. EURGBP trades either side of the 0.88 handle, erasing a small part of the recent rally up to 0.8865.
• Tuesday data schedule is light, with markets gearing for the now much-delayed September NFP print due this Thursday. The central bank slate is busier: ECB's Pereira & Dolenc are set to make appearances as well as BoE's Pill & Dhingra. Lastly, Fed's Barkin is due to comment on the economic outlook having not commented directly on policy since the last Fed decision. Barkin had previously seen less caution around the jobs market given the unlikely circumstance of broad layoffs given such a slow pace of hiring in recent years. 

TUESDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
18/11/2025	1000/1100		EU	ECB Elderson at Banking Supervision Press Conference
18/11/2025	1300/1300		GB	BOE Pill Fireside Chat on MonPol
18/11/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Import/Export Price Index
18/11/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
18/11/2025	1415/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
18/11/2025	1500/1000	**	US	NAHB Home Builder Index
18/11/2025	1500/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
18/11/2025	1500/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
18/11/2025	1530/1030		US	Fed Governor Michael Barr
18/11/2025	1600/1100		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
18/11/2025	1700/1700		GB	BOE Dhingra on Income Growth and Consumption
18/11/2025	2100/1600	**	US	TICS
18/11/2025	2300/1800		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
19/11/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
19/11/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
19/11/2025	0030/1130	***	AU	Quarterly wage price index