CANADA DATA: Inflation Seen Softer In October, Big Surprise Needed For BOC Shift
Nov-17 13:08
Re-upping our Canadian CPI (0830ET) preview note with updates sell-side forecasts - in short, inflation pressures are expected to have pulled back in October from September's 7-month high 2.4% Y/Y. Consensus (Bloomberg median) sees October CPI at 2.1% Y/Y (2.4% prior), with M/M at 0.2% (0.1% prior), while the average Median/Trim measure is seen at 3.00% (3.15% prior). MNI's analyst median suggests a skew to the soft side vs that - see table below.
- Some factors seen keeping a lid on inflation in October include Ottawa's removal of retaliatory tariffs on the US in September, as well as softer gasoline prices. Overall, core goods inflation is moderating with core services merely a little stickier, and it was largely food/energy inflation and downstream effects thereof that spurred the latest tickup in overall CPI.
- October's data are unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's assessment at the October meeting that "Looking at the full range of inflation indicators, Governing Council concluded that underlying inflation was still around 2½%" (they're looking at measures beyond the traditional trim/median these days). In any case they "acknowledged that year-over-year inflation would be choppy in the coming months" so would be likely to maintain the bias to hold rates for the foreseeable future even in the event of a downside surprise.
- That said there's under 2bp of cuts implied by the December meeting and just 7bp priced through the next 4 meetings, so an upside surprise here probably wouldn't do much for near-dated pricing.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
