MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Data Flows, Unemployment Rate Rises

HIGHLIGHTS

• Treasuries alternately extended session lows then highs after mixed data - unemployment rate hit new cycle high, sizeable beat for NFP growth in Sep (119k vs cons 51k) with a smaller two-month revision of -33k, mostly in Aug.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack on Thursday said lowering interest rates risks prolonging elevated inflation, and could come at the cost of heightened financial stability risks down the road.
• Stocks remain weaker late Thursday - well off early session highs as investors looked past Nvidia's earnings and sales beat announced late Wednesday.
• Friday's schedule is highlighted by flash November PMIs. The docket also includes a public sector finances update from the UK alongside retail sales data and an appearance by BOE's Pill.

US TSYS

MNI US TSYS: Near Highs/Wide Ranges on Heavy Volumes, Unemployment Driver

• Treasuries look to finish near midday highs after a volatile morning and rush of economic data, heavy volumes (TYZ5 over 3.6M) as quarterly futures rolls accelerated - 10s over 25% complete. Currently, TYZ5 +8.5 at 112-30.5 (112-11.5 low, 113-01.5 high), still inside technicals: resistance held at the 113-02 level in Treasuries, an area of congestion since Nov 5, remains intact. A clear breach of this hurdle would be a bullish signal and suggest scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. This would also cancel a short-term bearish theme.
• Fast two-way trade as Tsys alternately extended lows - then highs after weekly claims dipped/continuing claims gained, NFP rises/prior down revised. Risk-on tone gaining momentum/rate hike pricing bounced post data - only to gradually retreat into the close.
• September's Household Survey broadly added to evidence that the labor market is loosening. The 4.44% unemployment rate is the highest since October 2021 (4.32% prior) and was above the consensus expectation of 4.3%. With the number of unemployed rising 219k, it's now up 588k in the last 3 months.
• The 220k (SA) initial claims in the week of Nov 15 were the joint-lowest (seen also in the Oct 11 and Oct 25 weeks) since Sep 20, and a fall from 228k prior. This was also below the 227k consensus and suggests relative stability in this November payrolls reference week.
• Mixed initial response for the USD, but more settled reaction sees EURUSD rally well off a new intraday low, trimming the day's losses to trade broadly unchanged. USDJPY managed to briefly print a new cycle high at 157.86 before reversing hard. The dollar’s resilience remains most notable against the yen, with USDJPY looking to post its highest daily close since January, currently trading at 157.60.

REFERENCE RATES
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US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.91% (-0.03), volume: $3.179T
• Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.87% (-0.03), volume: $1.272T
• Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.87% (-0.03), volume: $1.244T
• (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.88% (+0.00), volume: $76B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.88% (+0.00), volume: $166B

FED Reverse Repo Operation

RRP usage up to $6.520B with 7 counterparties this afternoon. Compares to Tuesday's $0.905B - lowest level since mid-March 2021; this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

US SOFR/TREASURY OPTION SUMMARY

Heavy SOFR & Treasury option volumes leaning towards upside calls - looking to hedge rate cut risk in early 2026. Underlying futures firm after the bell - well off this morning's knee-jerk lows. Curves only mildly steeper as Fed speak (Hammack, Goolsbee) tempered the dovish reaction to the rise in unemployment. Projected rate cut pricing retreated after some post-data volatility, current levels vs. morning levels (*): Dec'25 at -9.1bp (-9.9bp), Jan'26 at -22.1bp (-24.1bp), Mar'26 at -32.5bp (-33.4bp), Apr'26 at -40.9bp (-41.1bp).

SOFR Options:
+20,000 SFRM6 96.75/97.12/97.25/97.62 call condors, 5.75 to 6.0 (adds to +50k Wed's)
-12,000 SFRF6 96.68/96.87/97.06 call flys, 1.0 ref 96.42
-5,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.25/96.50/96.62 call condors, 5.0 ref 96.1875
+5,000 SFRG6 96.43/96.62 call spds, 5.25 vs. 96.43/0.10%
Block, 7,900 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25 call spds, 2.75 ref 96.93
Block, 7,900 0QZ5 97.06/97.18 call spds, 2.0 ref 96.93
Block, 5,000 SFRZ5 95.93/96.06/96.18 put flys, 4.75
+4,500 0QF6 97.00/97.25 call spds, 7.25 ref 96.945
+8,000 0QZ6 95.87/96.00 put spds, 2.0
-5,000 SFRZ5 96.12 straddles, 8.75
3,000 2QM6 96.75 puts ref 96.705
5,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.37/96.50 broken call flys ref 96.155
25,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condors ref 96.1525
16,000 SFRH6 96.43/96.56/96.68 call flys ref 96.365 to -.37
10,000 SFRF6 96.25/96.37/96.50 call flys ref 96.365
4,800 0QF6 96.62 puts ref 96.90
7,500 SFRZ5 96.25/96.68 call spds 
5,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.18/96.25 2x3x2 put flys ref 96.16
16,500 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds ref 96.1625
2,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50 call flys ref 96.1625
Block/screen, 3,700 SFRZ5 96.31/96.37 call spds 0.50
Block, 2,500 SFRZ5 96.25/96.31 call spds 1.75
2,000 SFRZ5 96.31/96.37 call spds vs. 96.06 put ref 96.16
15,000 SFRZ5 96.31/96.37 2x3 call spds ref 96.1575 to -.16
2,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.25/96.50/96.62 call condors
2,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25 call spds ref 96.16
2,900 SFRZ5 96.12 puts, 2.75 ref 96.1575
2,000 0QZ5 97.00 calls ref 96.89
Block, 6,700 SFRM6 96.25/96.50 put spds 9.25

Treasury Options: Reminder, Dec Tsy options expire tomorrow
over 17,500 TYF6 113.5/114 call spds, 20 ref 112-25.5
Block, +2,000 WNF6 120 straddles, 340 ref 120-02
Block, 22,789 TYZ5 112.5 puts, 2 vs. 112-24.5/0.25%
over 21,500 TYZ5 114 calls ref 112-24 to -24.5
2,500 TYZ5 113/113.5 call spds vs. TYF6 113.5/114 call spds
over 5,000 TYF6 112.5 straddles, 33
3,300 USF6 124 calls ref 116-02
4,500 TYZ5 111.75/112.25 put spds vs. 112.75 calls ref 112-18.5
5,000 TYZ5 113/113.5 call spds vs. TYF6 113.5/114 call spds
2,500 USF6 119 calls, 31 ref 116-01
5,000 FVF6 108.25/110.25 strangles ref 109-07
4,500 TYZ5 112/112.25 put spds, 3
2,100 TYF6 112.5 straddles ref 112-19.5
4,000 wk4 TY 112.25/113.25 strangles, 18 ref 112-19.5
over 5,600 FVZ5 109 puts, 5 last ref 109-07
1,500 TYZ5 113.5 calls,1 ref 112-21.5
1,700 TUG6 104 puts ref 104-09.12

MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Regain Some Ground Amid EGB Weakness

European yields traded mixed Thursday, with Gilts outperforming Bunds for the first time in 3 sessions.

• EGBs and Gilts were on the back foot in early trade as risk appetite picked up alongside equities (thanks largely to Nvidia's solid earnings report overnight). 10Y Bund yields touched fresh multi-year highs in a broader steepening move.
• The session's worst levels were seen immediately after the release of the postponed US employment report for September, which showed stronger job gains than anticipated.
• However yields would descend from then on, in part because of a higher-than-expected US unemployment rate in the report, as well as a pullback in equities that extended through the European bond cash close.
• The German curve bear steepened modestly on the day, with the UK's bull flattening. Periphery spreads failed to solidify early narrowing and closed modestly wider.
• Friday's schedule is highlighted by flash November PMIs. The docket also includes a public sector finances update from the UK alongside retail sales data and an appearance by BOE's Pill; in the Eurozone we get French confidence and Q3 negotiated wages data, with multiple ECB speakers including Lagarde making appearances.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.1bps at 2.019%, 5-Yr is up 0.1bps at 2.295%, 10-Yr is up 0.5bps at 2.716%, and 30-Yr is up 1.7bps at 3.349%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.3bps at 3.793%, 5-Yr is down 1.1bps at 3.99%, 10-Yr is down 1.6bps at 4.586%, and 30-Yr is down 2.5bps at 5.423%.
• Italian BTP spread up 1.5bps at 75.7bps / French OAT up 0.7bps at 75.7bps 

MNI EGB OPTIONS: Strangle, Condor, And Large Call Spread Package Feature Thursday

Thursday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• OEZ5 118.50/117.75 ^^ paper paid 6.5 on 2K
  RXH6 127/127ps 1x2, bought for 33 in 4k
• ERZ6 98.75/98.87cs bought in 30k vs VS Selling:  ERM6 98.75/98.87cs in 15k /  ERU6 98.75/98.87cs in 15k /  ERZ6 99.00/99.50cs in 15k. Net traded for -0.25 in 15k for the 75/87cs
• 0RH6 97.87/97.75/97.68/97.37p condor, sold at 1.5 in 4k

MNI FOREX: Sharp Reversal for AUDJPY as Equities Reverse Initial Optimism

• The first half of the session for currencies was characterised by the buoyant risk sentiment in the aftermath of the Nvidia earning report late Wednesday. Dynamics provided a positive backdrop for Cross/JPY to substantially extend recent strengthening trends. Equity sentiment attempted to extend following the delayed September payrolls report, however, sharp reversals then ensued.
• The roughly 7% turnaround for Nvidia dragged the major US indices into negative territory, and in tandem, the likes of AUDJPY and NZDJPY have sharply reversed course. For AUDJPY specifically, spot briefly pierced the November 2024 high, placing the cross at its highest level since July 2024. Amid the turnaround for stocks, AUDJPY has reversed 1.15% to now trade 0.45% lower on the session.
• Moves for the broader dollar index have been extremely contained, with Fed pricing for the December rate decision holding marginally in favour of a policy hold, and several banks adjusting their calls for that meeting despite the latest US unemployment rate rising to 4.44%.
• DXY highs of 100.36 matched the recovery highs from earlier in the month, keeping short-term bullish conditions intact for the greenback.
• The dollar’s resilience remains most notable against the yen, with USDJPY looking to post its highest daily close since January, currently trading at 157.45. Highs for the session fell just short of the 158.00 handle, and it is worth noting that the pair has entered overbought territory. A pullback would be considered corrective. Given the consistent verbal jawboning in recent weeks, we would expect further rhetoric from MOF officials given the sharp extension lower for the JPY this week.
• Japan National CPI, UK retail sales and Eurozone flash PMIs headline Friday’s data calendar.

MNI OPTIONS: Expiries for Nov21 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

• EUR/USD: $1.1500(E1.7bln), $1.1535(E1.3bln), $1.1575(E669mln), $1.1625(E932mln), $1.1675-80(E1.2bln)
• USD/JPY: Y155.00($933mln), Y156.00($881mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6550(A$2.3bln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3950-70($1.3bln), C$1.4000($600mln)

MNI US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Hugging Session Lows After Strong Start

• Stocks remain weaker late Thursday - well off early session highs as investors looked past Nvidia's earnings and sales beat announced late Wednesday. Traders citing likely profit-taking on the opening gap and the reversal in Fed rate cut-pricing for December on that NFP print (trimmed to ~11bps from post-data levels of ~13bps).
• Stocks had staged a strong rally early Thursday, SPX eminis climbing to 6791.25 as Nvidia climbed 5% to an appr 196.0 high following CEO Jensen Huang's confident outlook during a call with analysts. By midmorning, however, Nvidia reversed course with the chip maker down -2.20% at the moment to appr 182.0.
• Currently, the DJIA down 110.41 points (-0.24%) at 46040.06, S&P E-Minis down 47.75 points (-0.72%) at 6615.25, Nasdaq down 254 points (-1.1%) at 22316.33.
• Nvidia's reversal dragged other majors with it: AMD, Oracle, Qualcomm and other AI- and chip-tied names are softer - meaning the headline index looks softer despite 3/5 names holding higher on the day.
• Leading second half declines: Micron Technology -9.47%, Western Digital -7.92%, Palo Alto Networks -7.55%, Teradyne -6.28%, Advanced Micro Devices -6.10% and Seagate Technology -5.87%
• Second half advances included a mix of retailers and pharmaceuticals: Walmart +6.14%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals +4.90%, Solventum +3.53%, Brown-Forman +2.31%, Erie Indemnity +2.29%, GE HealthCare +2.21% and Welltower +2.09%.

MNI EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 6900.50 High Nov 12
• RES 1: 6767.81/6772.75 20-day EMA / Intraday high 
• PRICE: 6599.00 @ 1505 ET Nov 22
• SUP 1: 6572.25 Low Nov 20  
• SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend 

S&P E-Minis maintain a softer S/T tone - for now - despite the latest bounce. The breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. A resumption of weakness would open 6540.25, the Oct 10 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6767.81, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it is required to signal scope for a stronger near-term recovery.

MNI COMMODITIES: Crude Declines Amid Ukraine Peace Hopes, Gold Rangebound

• WTI shed earlier gains to be lower on the day amid reports of potential Ukrainian openness to a touted 28-point peace plan. There is reportedly US pressure to strike a deal.
• WTI Dec 25 is down by 0.3% at $59.3/bbl.
• Meanwhile, sanctions on Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil are due to come into effect on Friday. There have already been signs of buyers shifting away from their supplies to other smaller Russian suppliers and non-Russian sources.
• From a technical perspective, WTI futures are trading in a range. A resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low.
• Resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has traded in a tight range today, with price currently just 0.1% higher on the day at $4,083/oz.
• This comes as moves for the broader US dollar index have been extremely contained following the September US payrolls report, with Fed pricing for the December rate decision holding marginally in favour of a policy hold.
• Key support for gold lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3,948.34. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• The first short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4,245.23, the Nov 13 high. 

FRIDAY DATA CALENDAR

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
21/11/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Public Sector Finances
21/11/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Retail Sales
21/11/2025	0745/0845	**	FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
21/11/2025	0800/0900		EU	ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Foro Gran Via
21/11/2025	0815/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/11/2025	0815/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/11/2025	0830/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/11/2025	0830/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/11/2025	0830/0930		EU	ECB Lagarde Speech at European Banking Congress
21/11/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/11/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/11/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
21/11/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
21/11/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Services PMI flash
21/11/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
21/11/2025	1000/1100		EU	Negotiated Wage Growth
21/11/2025	1130/1230		EU	ECB de Guindos Remarks/Q&A at Deusto Business School
21/11/2025	1230/0730		US	New York Fed's John Williams
21/11/2025	1330/0830	**	CA	Retail Trade
21/11/2025	1330/0830		US	Fed Governor Michael Barr
21/11/2025	1345/0845		US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
21/11/2025	1400/0900		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
21/11/2025	1400/0900		US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
21/11/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash)
21/11/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
21/11/2025	1500/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
21/11/2025	1500/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
21/11/2025	1540/1540		GB	BOE Pill in Panel at Swiss National Bank
21/11/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
21/11/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
21/11/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly