US TSYS: Near Highs/Wide Ranges on Heavy Volumes, Unemployment Driver
Nov-20 20:56
- Treasuries look to finish near midday highs after a volatile morning and rush of economic data, heavy volumes (TYZ5 over 3.6M) as quarterly futures rolls accelerated - 10s over 25% complete. Currently, TYZ5 +8.5 at 112-30.5 (112-11.5 low, 113-01.5 high), still inside technicals: resistance held at the 113-02 level in Treasuries, an area of congestion since Nov 5, remains intact. A clear breach of this hurdle would be a bullish signal and suggest scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. This would also cancel a short-term bearish theme.
- Fast two-way trade as Tsys alternately extended lows - then highs after weekly claims dipped/continuing claims gained, NFP rises/prior down revised. Risk-on tone gaining momentum/rate hike pricing bounced post data - only to gradually retreat into the close.
- September's Household Survey broadly added to evidence that the labor market is loosening. The 4.44% unemployment rate is the highest since October 2021 (4.32% prior) and was above the consensus expectation of 4.3%. With the number of unemployed rising 219k, it's now up 588k in the last 3 months.
- The 220k (SA) initial claims in the week of Nov 15 were the joint-lowest (seen also in the Oct 11 and Oct 25 weeks) since Sep 20, and a fall from 228k prior. This was also below the 227k consensus and suggests relative stability in this November payrolls reference week.
- Mixed initial response for the USD, but more settled reaction sees EURUSD rally well off a new intraday low, trimming the day's losses to trade broadly unchanged. USDJPY managed to briefly print a new cycle high at 157.86 before reversing hard. The dollar’s resilience remains most notable against the yen, with USDJPY looking to post its highest daily close since January, currently trading at 157.60.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Cycle
Oct-21 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4027 @ 15:46 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 1.3972/3895 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3818 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3895, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3972.
US TSYS: Tsys Hold Near Highs, New Record High for DJIA, Gold Record Decline
Oct-21 19:31
- Treasuries holding narrow, higher range since gaining early Tuesday - apparently sensitive to a couple social media posts by Pres Trump while stocks dipped too after he posted retribution on Hamas if they continue "to act badly, in violation of their agreement with us."
- Second half risk-off coincided with Pres Trump expecting "$20T in US until year end", while Trump anticipates having "a good deal with Xi" the meeting in S Korea at end of the month may NOT happen.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +5.5 at 113-24.5 vs 113-27.5 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont) and the next key resistance. Firm support lies at 113-01+, the 20-day EMA.
- Projected rate cut pricing steady to mildly mixed vs. late Monday levels (*): Oct'25 at -24.2bp (-24.7bp), Dec'25 at -49.2bp (-50bp), Jan'26 at -64.2bp (-63.7bp), Mar'26 at -78.2bp (-77bp).
- Stocks remain mixed late Tuesday, the DJIA outperforming after managing to mark a new record high of 47,125.66 in the first half. Reporting earnings after the close: Netflix, Capital One Financial, Mattel, Western Alliance Bancorp (in the hot seat last week after announcing bad loan losses), Omnicom, EQY and Texas Instruments.
- Precious metals sold off sharply on Tuesday, with spot gold currently down by 5.6% at $4,113/oz and silver down by 7.7% at $48.4/oz, albeit off session lows. Platinum and palladium have also fallen by 5-6%.
AUDUSD TECHS: Candle Pattern Highlights A Potential Reversal
Oct-21 19:30
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6548 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6486 @ 15:45 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
- SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
AUDUSD is in consolidation mode. Price action on Oct 14 continues to highlight a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. Note that MA studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6548, the 50-day EMA. A breach of 0.6440, the Oct 14 low, would cancel the reversal signal and reinstate a bear threat.
