US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Hugging Session Lows After Strong Start
Nov-20 20:01
- Stocks remain weaker late Thursday - well off early session highs as investors looked past Nvidia's earnings and sales beat announced late Wednesday. Traders citing likely profit-taking on the opening gap and the reversal in Fed rate cut-pricing for December on that NFP print (trimmed to ~11bps from post-data levels of ~13bps).
- Stocks had staged a strong rally early Thursday, SPX eminis climbing to 6791.25 as Nvidia climbed 5% to an appr 196.0 high following CEO Jensen Huang's confident outlook during a call with analysts. By midmorning, however, Nvidia reversed course with the chip maker down -2.20% at the moment to appr 182.0.
- Currently, the DJIA down 110.41 points (-0.24%) at 46040.06, S&P E-Minis down 47.75 points (-0.72%) at 6615.25, Nasdaq down 254 points (-1.1%) at 22316.33.
- Nvidia's reversal dragged other majors with it: AMD, Oracle, Qualcomm and other AI- and chip-tied names are softer - meaning the headline index looks softer despite 3/5 names holding higher on the day.
- Leading second half declines: Micron Technology -9.47%, Western Digital -7.92%, Palo Alto Networks -7.55%, Teradyne -6.28%, Advanced Micro Devices -6.10% and Seagate Technology -5.87%
- Second half advances included a mix of retailers and pharmaceuticals: Walmart +6.14%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals +4.90%, Solventum +3.53%, Brown-Forman +2.31%, Erie Indemnity +2.29%, GE HealthCare +2.21% and Welltower +2.09%.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Cycle
Oct-21 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4027 @ 15:46 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 1.3972/3895 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3818 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3895, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3972.
US TSYS: Tsys Hold Near Highs, New Record High for DJIA, Gold Record Decline
Oct-21 19:31
- Treasuries holding narrow, higher range since gaining early Tuesday - apparently sensitive to a couple social media posts by Pres Trump while stocks dipped too after he posted retribution on Hamas if they continue "to act badly, in violation of their agreement with us."
- Second half risk-off coincided with Pres Trump expecting "$20T in US until year end", while Trump anticipates having "a good deal with Xi" the meeting in S Korea at end of the month may NOT happen.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +5.5 at 113-24.5 vs 113-27.5 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont) and the next key resistance. Firm support lies at 113-01+, the 20-day EMA.
- Projected rate cut pricing steady to mildly mixed vs. late Monday levels (*): Oct'25 at -24.2bp (-24.7bp), Dec'25 at -49.2bp (-50bp), Jan'26 at -64.2bp (-63.7bp), Mar'26 at -78.2bp (-77bp).
- Stocks remain mixed late Tuesday, the DJIA outperforming after managing to mark a new record high of 47,125.66 in the first half. Reporting earnings after the close: Netflix, Capital One Financial, Mattel, Western Alliance Bancorp (in the hot seat last week after announcing bad loan losses), Omnicom, EQY and Texas Instruments.
- Precious metals sold off sharply on Tuesday, with spot gold currently down by 5.6% at $4,113/oz and silver down by 7.7% at $48.4/oz, albeit off session lows. Platinum and palladium have also fallen by 5-6%.
AUDUSD TECHS: Candle Pattern Highlights A Potential Reversal
Oct-21 19:30
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6548 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6486 @ 15:45 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
- SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
AUDUSD is in consolidation mode. Price action on Oct 14 continues to highlight a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. Note that MA studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6548, the 50-day EMA. A breach of 0.6440, the Oct 14 low, would cancel the reversal signal and reinstate a bear threat.
