GERMANY: Mittelstand Labour Market Deterioration Accelerating
The German labour market in the small- and medium enterprise sector is deteriorating, with employment declining 0.7% Y/Y in March according to Datev data seen by newspaper FAZ.
- "This means that job cuts, which began in the SME sector in September last year, have recently accelerated."
- The small- and medium enterprise sector, called Mittelstand, is considered of elevated importance in Germany (it is "account[ing] for around 55 percent of the workforce"), and while a deterioration in hiring perspectives there does not necessarily come unexpected, it underscores the economic turmoil apparent domestically since at least 2022.
- "Turnover in the SME sector has been shrinking for months, while wages and salaries are rising faster than inflation. According to the latest data, turnover in March was 4.5 percent lower than a year ago, while wages in the SME sector rose by 4.6 percent."
The report mirrors broader trends in the country: Latest German labour market data on balance suggested that the ongoing economic weakness in the country continues to filter through to employment metrics, and the IFO employment index suggests there is little relief in sight ('Labour Market Softening Continues' - MNI, Mar 28).
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
