AUSTRALIA: Minority Government Distinct Possibility As Focus On Certain Seats
Australia holds its federal election on May 3 and as the date approaches the incumbent Labor Party (ALP) has increased its share of both the primary and 2-party preferred vote across opinion polls. If the actual result comes in close to the surveys, which are currently around the 2022 outcome, then Labor could hold its small majority in the House of Representatives but trends are unlikely to be uniform across seats and the risk of a minority government remains high.
Australia average of opinion polls - 2-party preferred %
Source: MNI - Market News/Wikipedia
- The ALP had been behind the opposition LNP in the important 2-party preferred measure (Australia has a preferential voting system) from September last year but turned that around once the election campaign officially began.
- Polls in April are showing that the ALP could achieve a primary vote of around its May 2022 33% result with a 2-party preferred possibly around 2022’s 52.1%. It is difficult to ascertain if that will allow it to keep its 2 seat majority of 77 as outcomes in individual seats will be particularly important given the high number of incumbent and candidate independents as well as local issues.
- The average of recent surveys is showing that in terms of percentages the 2025 election could be very similar to 2022 with the average of the last 3 polls (Freshwater, Newspoll, Roy Morgan) showing the centre-left ALP with 34% (+1pp), centre-right LNP 36% (unchanged), Greens (+1pp), independents 13% (+3pp) and right-wing One Nation 7% (+2pp). The 2-party preferred is in line with 2022 at 52:48 to the ALP.
- The most recent Freshwater poll taken over April 14-16 showed a seat projection of ALP 68 (-9), LNP 69 (+16), Greens 1 (-3) and other 12 (-3), which is signalling a minority government but unclear of which persuasion. This poll reinforces the importance of the outcomes in individual seats.
Australia average of opinion polls - primary vote %
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