GERMANY: Merz's CDU Regains Top Spot After Shock AfD Lead Poll

• "2Q NET INTEREST INCOME FTE $14.82B, EST. $14.84B - bbg
• 2Q NET INTEREST INCOME $14.67B, EST. $14.59B
• 2Q LOANS $1.15T, EST. $1.12T
• 2Q NET CHARGE-OFFS $1.53B, EST. $1.5B
• 2Q TRADING REVENUE EX. DVA $5.38B, EST. $4.94B"

• Markets: Record Q2 sales and trading revs, record Q2 equities sales and trading revs
• Consumer side: YTD consumer payment spend is up 4% Y/Y at $2.3tr
• Sectoral spending, they see increases in both volumes and transactions for travel & entertainment, food, retail and services (T&E, Services rising the fastest) however spending on gas declined by 6% in $ terms, on flat transaction numbers.
• Residential mortgage loans rose for the first time in 5 quarters, up to $118bln from $115bln in the prior quarter. Credit card and vehicle lending was broadly flat

• Treasuries trade modestly twist flatter on the day although broadly speaking consolidate yesterday’s sell-off on the June CPI report with its signs of increased tariff passthrough.
• Treasuries outperform Gilts across the curve owing to stronger than expected UK CPI, whilst they underperform EGBs at the front end but track in line further out the curve.
• Cash yields are 0.7bp higher (2s) to 1.8bp lower (30s).
• The 10Y yield, currently at 4.473%, saw an overnight high of 4.493%, having last cleared 4.50% on Jun 11.
• TYU5 trades at 110-11+ (+ 02+) on solid cumulative volumes of 375k, albeit keeping to narrowing ranges of 110-08+ to 110-13+.
• It consolidates yesterday’s push lower to that 110-08+, seen multiple times since then, in a move that breached an important support at 110-17 (61.8% of May 22 – Jul 1 bull leg). It has also traded through trendline support at 110-23+, strengthening a bearish theme and opening 110-03 (76.4% retrace of the same bull leg).
• Data: MBA mortgage applications (0700ET), PPI Jun (0830ET), NY Fed services Jul (0830ET), IP/Cap util Jun (0915ET)
• Fedspeak: Barkin repeats speech (0830ET, text + Q&A), Hammack on community development (0915ET, text only), Gov. Barr on financial regulation (1000ET, text + Q&A), Beige Book (1400ET), Bostic on fox business network (1530ET), NY Fed's Williams on economic outlook and policy (1830ET, text + Q&A).
• Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $65bn 17-W bills (1130ET)

Awaiting results from Bank of America in around 10 minutes times - continuing the theme of big bank earnings that should dominate this week. Highlights today include:

• 1145BST/0645ET: Bank of America
• 1230BST/0730ET: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs
• Pre-Market: Prologis, Progressive Corp
• After-Market: United Airlines

Our full schedule including timings, EPS and revenue estimates here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNIUSEARNINGS_110725_c282a28044.pdf