GERMANY: Merz To Hold First Government Declaration at 12:00 BST / 13:00 CEST
May-14 10:35
- German Chancellor Merz is scheduled hold his first government declaration today at 12:00 BST, following the currently ongoing survey of the federal government.
- The declaration will be resembling an 'Agenda 2030' according to prior comments of CDU General Secretary Linnemann, focussing on energy cost and tax cuts as well as skilled worker shortage and bureaucracy reduction. We assume the announcement will bolster plans lined out in the coalition agreement and earlier media reports which we reported on ('Coalition To Focus First on Energy, Rent Freezes, Pension Level, Labour' - MNI, May 08 ). The measures do appear reasonable in principle but the success of especially the bureaucracy reduction plans will also depend on their implementation.
- Key measures are likely to include
- a general 5ct/kWh energy price reduction
- the introduction of an 'industrial electricity price'
- accelerated investment write-offs for enterprises, followed by enterprise tax reductions starting 2028
- a E2000/month tax-free income allowance for pensioners
- unemployment insurance reform intended to increase incentives to take on work
- Additionally, CDU highlighted in their 'Agenda 2030' draft published in January here their plans to "at least halve the number of commissioners [there have been 66 such positions advising the last federal administration] and to manage the federal ministries with 10% fewer staff than before.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
Apr-14 10:33
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s rally confirms and reinforces this condition. The yellow metal has traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3063.4, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a 1.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing.
- In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and last Wednesday's rally is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $54.26, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations, Fed Speak
Apr-14 10:31
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 14-Apr 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.13%, --)
- 14-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions
- 14-Apr 1300 Fed Gov Waller economic outlook (text, Q&A)
- 14-Apr 1800 Philly Fed Harker on role of Fed (tex, Q&A)
- 14-Apr 1940 Atlanta Fed Bostic fireside chat on policy
US INFLATION: MNI US Inflation Insight: No Tariff Surge Realization In March
Apr-14 10:15
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Inflation Insight.
- Please find the full report including MNI analysis and a range of analyst core PCE estimates here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Apr2025_6247605af4.pdf
