ECB: Macro Since Last ECB - Labour: U/E Rate Still Close To Lows, Wages Cooling
- The Eurozone unemployment rate surprised a tenth higher in August at a seasonally adjusted 6.3%, ticking up from an unrevised 6.2% in July. The lack of upward revision was of some note after regular upward revisions in recent months, leaving that 6.2% at joint historical low along with Nov 2024.
- As such, the unemployment rate continues to point to a historically tight labour market, and analysts expect more of the same in the September report released also on the day of this week’s ECB decision.
- Meanwhile, revisions to the ECB wage tracker, released as usual the Wednesday after the ECB decision, were immaterial relative to the July update. As is also typical, the ECB will have had access to this latest estimate with the September meeting but we include here with it being the ECB’s primary focal point for wages.
- The tracker excluding one-off payments (which is probably the best measure of underlying compensation pressures) was estimated at 2.58% in Q1 2026, down from 2.61% in July. The tracker now includes data up to Q2 2026, albeit with a low employee coverage, with wages excluding one-offs currently seen at 2.41% Y/Y for what would be modest additional moderation.
- As indicated by President Lagarde in the September press conference, the tracker continues to suggest that compensation pressures will ease in the coming years.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 149.52 @ 18:56 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 148.38/147.47 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
USDJPY traded higher last week as the pair extended the recovery that started Sep 17. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Also, moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 149.14, the Sep 3 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance. Pivot support is 145.49, Sep 17 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 0.8728 @ 18:49 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 0.8659/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
EURGBP is trading closer to its recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8659, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: .3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17
- RES 2: 1.3537 High Sep 23 1
- RES 1: 1.3427 Low Sep 24
- PRICE: 1.3407 @ 18:45 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD traded lower last Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear cycle that started Sep 17. The move down has resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of it would signal a reversal.
