ECB: Macro Since Last ECB: Inflation - HICP At Target, Core Still A Little Above
Sep-10 16:35
- The two months of HICP data have been mixed from a headline inflation perspective whilst core inflation has continued to track at a near identical Y/Y pace to that ahead of the July ECB decision.
- Specifically, July headline inflation came in on the high side of analyst expectations at 2.04% Y/Y (Bloomberg median 1.9) before only just rounding to the 2.1% expected in the preliminary flash release at 2.05% Y/Y.
- Core inflation ticked down to 2.27% Y/Y in August as it continues some stabilization after two months at 2.31% through June-July and 2.28% in May.
- The much-eyed services component has seen some disinflation however, with 3.10% Y/Y in August and 3.15% in July after the 3.32% Y/Y in June known ahead of the July meeting.
- As for 3m/3m momentum metrics using the ECB’s seasonally adjusted data, core momentum firmed from 2.2% in July to 2.4% annualized in August but remains below the 2.7% seen in June. Similarly, services inflation momentum currently stands at 3.1% annualized in August after 3.0% in July, still elevated but at least comfortably below the >4% readings seen the three months prior.
- One area we’ll be watching is whether there is a more widespread discussion around the continued re-acceleration of food inflation, as noted by Schnabel, with something similar seen in BOE commentary in the UK.
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US: Trump 'See What Happens' w/China Pause, Zelenskyy Not Included In Putin Meet
Aug-11 15:47
President Donald Trump has told reporters at the White House, "we'll see what happens" with the China tariff and export control pause that expires at midnight tonight. Trump adds: "We've been dealing very nicely with China. They have tremendous tariffs," but "we'll see what happens". LIVESTREAM The prevailing view is that Trump will endorse a 90-day extension to the pause.
- Trump says on Friday's Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, "This is really a feel out meeting". He says: "Putin invited me to get involved... I believe he wants to get it over with." Adds: "Now, I've said that a few times and been disappointed," cites previous meetings that have been followed by Russian airstrikes.
- Trump: "I'm going in to speak with Vladimir Putin and I'm going to be telling him 'you've got to end it' ... I think we'll have constructive conversations." Trump's tone suggests that he is managing expectations of a major breakthrough in Alaska.
- Trump says that "immediately" after the meeting, he will call European leaders. Trump notes that he "gets along" with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy but disagrees with 'a lot of what he's done'. He notes that the next meeting will be either a bilateral between Zelenskyy and Putin or a trilateral with Trump's involvement.
- Trump's comments comes amid an extended press conference after his Washington DC emergency declaration. Earlier Trump suggested that other Democrat-run cities, including Los Angeles, New York, Baltimore, Chicago, Portland, and Oakland, could be subject to similar federal law enforcement operations. He says, "Democrats are weak on crime".
FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.970%(ALLOT 27.15%)
Aug-11 15:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.970%(ALLOT 27.15%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 19.63% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 8.49% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 71.88% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.21
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.150%(ALLOT 24.77%)
Aug-11 15:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.150%(ALLOT 24.77%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 36.69% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.58% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 57.73% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.64
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