ECB: Macro Since Last ECB - Growth: Better Than Low Expectations

RRP usage rises to $3.172B with 7 counterparties this afternoon from last Friday's $1.559B - lowest level since mid-March 2021. Compares to this years highest excess liquidity measure off $460.731B on June 30.

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg  
• RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1656 High Nov 13
• PRICE: 1.1596 @ 16:06 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 1.1530/1469 Low Nov 7 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD is trading below last week’s high. Resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 28 high. A break of this level would strengthen a short-term bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. This highlights a dominant downtrend and suggests that gains since Nov 5 are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low.   

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• RXZ5 129.50/129/128.50/128p condor (+1/-1.7/+0.4/+0.3), sold at 16.5 in 10
• RXG6 129.50/131.00/131.50/134.50 broken c condor vs 127.50/126.50ps, bought the condor for 4.5 and 5 in 7.5k
• ERM6 98.25/98.43/98.50/98.68 call condor vs 97.87 put. Buys back puts/sells call condor, paying 1.75 and 2 in 10k. Recall this was bought for example for 1.5 (bought condor vs put) in 10k on Oct 22
• ERM6 97.8125/98.3125RR, bought the Call for 0.75 in 8k
• ERM6 98.12/98.37cs, bought for 4 in 5k
• 0RH6 98.00^ bought in 4k vs 0RH6 96.68/98.18^^ sold in 6k Paid 13.25 and 13.5