BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 133.90 1.236 proj of the Mar 25 - Apr 7- 9 price swing
- RES 3: 133.00 round number resistance
- RES 2: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 130.80 @ 05:26 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 130.60/129.92 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28
A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Sights are on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Firm support lies at 128.60, Apr 9 low. A breach of it would alter the picture. First key support is 130.60, the 50-day EMA.
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BUND TECHS: (M5) Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 132.80 High Feb 5
- RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 130.57 50.0% retracement of Monday’s high-low range
- PRICE: 130.14 @ 05:26 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: 129.22 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 128.47 Low Mar 28
- SUP 3: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 127.20 Low Mar 17
Bund futures traded in a volatile manner Monday and remain below their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in play and a pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high Monday signals scope for a continuation of the uptrend. The contract has cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This strengthens the bullish condition and opens 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support lies at 129.22, the 20-day EMA.
US TSY FLOWS: Block SELL: UXYM5
4631 of UXYM5 traded at 112-14, post-time 04:53:15 BST (DV01 $403,533). The contract is currently dealing at 111-26+, -2-06 from closing levels.
US TSYS: Savage Bear-Steepener As China Retaliation In Focus
TYM5 is 110-12+, +1-02+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.
- Cash US tsys have extended yesterday’s decline during the Asia-Pac session. The sell-off reflects growing concerns that China may retaliate against tariffs by offloading US assets, including US tsys.
- At present, cash US tsys are trading 3-16bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the curve steeper.
- Yesterday, Trump officials confirmed 104% added tariff on China went into effect at noon.
- Concurrently, China vowed to "fight to the end".
- On the local front, the focus turns to the March FOMC minute release at 1400ET today, CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday morning.
- Reminder, banks kick off the latest earnings cycle this Friday with Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley reporting.
