BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 132.80 High Feb 5               
• RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance        
• RES 2: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 130.57 50.0% retracement of Monday’s high-low range                     
• PRICE: 130.14 @ 05:26 BST Apr 9
• SUP 1: 129.22 20-day EMA        
• SUP 2: 128.47 Low Mar 28            
• SUP 3: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 127.20 Low Mar 17   

Bund futures traded in a volatile manner Monday and remain below their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in play and a pullback is considered corrective. A fresh short-term cycle high Monday signals scope for a continuation of the uptrend. The contract has cleared 131.14, 76.4% of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg. This strengthens the bullish condition and opens 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Initial firm support lies at 129.22, the 20-day EMA.

4631 of UXYM5 traded at 112-14, post-time 04:53:15 BST (DV01 $403,533). The contract is currently dealing at 111-26+, -2-06 from closing levels.

TYM5 is 110-12+, +1-02+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• Cash US tsys have extended yesterday’s decline during the Asia-Pac session. The sell-off reflects growing concerns that China may retaliate against tariffs by offloading US assets, including US tsys.
• At present, cash US tsys are trading 3-16bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the curve steeper.
• Yesterday, Trump officials confirmed 104% added tariff on China went into effect at noon.
• Concurrently, China vowed to "fight to the end".
• On the local front, the focus turns to the March FOMC minute release at 1400ET today, CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday morning.
• Reminder, banks kick off the latest earnings cycle this Friday with Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley reporting.