BUND TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 133.90 1.236 proj of the Mar 25 - Apr 7- 9 price swing
- RES 3: 133.00 round number resistance
- RES 2: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 131.52 @ 08:09 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 130.77/129.92 20-day EMA / Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28
Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. Despite the latest move down, a bull cycle remains in play and the sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low. A break of this level would alter the picture.
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SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: $36.560 - 1.236 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 14 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: $35.463 - 1.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 14 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- PRICE: $34.731 @ 08:02 BST Apr 2
- SUP 1: $33.408 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $32.665 - Low Mar 21
- SUP 3: $32.591/31.814 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
- SUP 4: $30.815 - Low Feb 28 and key support
Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this condition. The metal has breached $34.233, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $33.408, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- PRICE: 1.4303 @ 07:55 BST Apr 2
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26
- SUP 2: 1.4151 Low Feb 14 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
USDCAD traded sharply lower Tuesday. Attention is on an important short-term support at 1.4235, the Mar 26 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the bull theme and highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 91.90/92.14 range.
