BUND TECHS: (M5) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 129.07 Intraday high
- PRICE: 128.91 @ 08:10 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 127.74/126.53 Low Mar 25 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures are trading at their recent highs. For now, the latest move higher appears corrective. The climb has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 128.63. This exposes a more important resistance at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. First support to watch lies at 127.74, the Mar 25 low. A break of this level would be seen as an early reversal signal. The bear trigger is 126.53, the Mar 11 low.
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GILTS: Flat Start, Global Cues Still Eyed
Gilts little changed with Bunds and Tsys off lows ahead of the UK open.
- Core global FI came under pressure in Asia on the back of increased odds of U.S. tax cuts.
- M5 futures -6 at 93.17, narrow 93.12-24 range to start.
- Initial resistance at the Feb 13 high (93.39), with the bullish technical theme intact in the contract.
- Roll completion stands at ~85% ahead of tomorrow’s first notice for H5.
- Yields little changed to 1bp lower across the curve.
- Little of note on the UK data calendar today,
- BoE dove Dhingra will speak on “Trade fragmentation and monetary policy” from 16:30 GMT, don’t expect a change in tone after she reaffirmed her dovish stance earlier in the week (pushing back against the idea of gradual cuts given her view on consumption).
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $31.752 @ 08:14 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: $31.290 - Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver traded sharply lower Tuesday and in the process breached the 20-day EMA and pierced $31.396, the 50-day EMA. The move down - for now - appears corrective, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.691, the Feb 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread seller
ERM5 97.62/97.75cs sold at 9.75 in 6.25k.
