BOBL TECHS: (M5) Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 119.230 @ 06:10 BST May 7
- SUP 1: 119.010 Low May 5
- SUP 2: 118.670 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Gains in early April resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high, strengthening bullish conditions. Sights are on the 120.000 handle next. On the downside, firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, at 119.102, has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 118.670.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 08-Apr | 1700 | --- | BoE's Lombardelli 'What can the UK learn from the US' |
| 10-Apr | 0001 | Mar | RICS House Prices |
| 10-Apr | 1400 | --- | BoE's Breeden at MNI ‘UK economic and Financial Stability prospects’ |
| 11-Apr | 0001 | Mar | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 11-Apr | 0700 | Feb | Monthly activity data |
| 11-Apr | ---- | --- | BoE's Saporta 'How financial crisis reshape market and strategies’ |
| 12-Apr | ---- | --- | BoE's Greene ‘The dynamics of monetary policy’ |
| 15-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 15-Apr | 0700 | Feb/Mar | Labour Market Survey |
| 16-Apr | 0700 | Mar | CPI / PPI |
| 23-Apr | 0001 | Mar | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 23-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Apr | 0730 | FY25/26 | DMO remit revision following FY24/25 CGNCR |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | Flash PMIs |
| 24-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Industrial Trends |
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $3223.8 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3200.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3196.2 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3055.6/3167.8 - Intraday high / High Apr 3 and bull trigger
- PRICE: $3036.5 @ 06:19 BST Apr 5
- SUP 1: $3971.3 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2943.8 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch lies at 2943.78, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3196.2, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 3167.8, the Apr 3 high.
JGBS: Richer, PM Ishiba To Push For Lower Tariffs, 30Y Supply Tomorrow
JGB futures remain sharply higher at 142.19, +53 compared to settlement levels, but well off session bests (142.95).
- “Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba says that the government will strongly push the US for tariff reductions, while emphasizing that it does not intend to provoke conflict with the US. Ishiba says the US may have misinterpreted certain trade issues and questions whether the measures align with the US-Japan Trade Agreement.” (per BBG)
- Japan’s leading economic indicator was at 107.9 in February, compared with 108.2 in the previous month.
- Markets continue to be hit by the ongoing trade-related pullback in risk appetite, although some have begun to stabilise at lower levels due to selling fatigue and profit-taking.
- Some Asian countries have said today that they will take steps to stabilise markets if needed and Japan has said it will speak with the US.
- Cash US tsys are 3-15bps richer, led by the short-end, in Asia-Pac session.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 11bps richer across benchmarks out to the 30-year (40-year flat), with the belly leading.
- Swap rates are 7-10bps lower.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see BoP Current Account and Trade Balance data alongside 30-year supply.
