AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Remains Toward Top End of Recent Range
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.785 @ 16:49 GMT Apr 24
- SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today.
- Thailand to Sell THB25bn of 2029 Bonds
- Thailand to Sell THB9bn of 2055 Bonds
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2040 Bonds; (TD2540037)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2055 Bonds; (TD2555052)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2030 Bonds; (TD2530008)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 11.5Tln 2035 Bonds; (TD2535026)
- Singapore to Sell S$7.4bn 182-Day Bills
- Singapore to Sell S$3bn Bonds Due 2030
- South Korea to Sell KRW2tn 63-Day Financial Bills
- India to Sell INR120bn 182-Day Bills
- India to Sell INR140bn 91-Day Bills
- India to Sell INR70bn 364-Day Bills
BONDS: NZGBS: Unchanged, US Tsys Slightly Richer After Data
In local morning trade, NZGBs are unchanged after US tsys finished Tuesday with modest gains.
- US tsys pared losses after Philly Fed non-mfg came out much lower than prior -32.5 vs. -13.1. They then extended gains after Conf. Board Consumer Confidence printed lower than expected. New Home Sales dipped but the up-revision to prior more than made up for the move.
- Fed Gov Kugler's (permanent FOMC voter) overall view on rates is unsurprisingly very similar to pre-FOMC and the Committee's overall signalling of a wait-and-see stance on rate moves.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 24bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 65bps by November 2025.
- The local calendar was empty today and will remain so until Friday's ANZ Consumer Confidence and Filled Jobs data release.
- Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.
- The NZ Treasury also plans to offer NZ$2bn of bonds in April, NZ$500mn each week. A syndicated tap of the existing May 2032 nominal bond will be undertaken by April 30.
NZD: NZD/USD Holding Recent Ranges, AUD/NZD Close To 1.10, AU CPI Later
NZD/USD was little changed for Tuesday's session, rising less than 0.10%. We track near 0.5730/35 in early Wednesday dealings, the pair remaining within recent ranges. Most G10 currencies firmed against the USD on Tuesday, with USD indices ticking down slightly. The BBDXY off 0.11% to 1270.32.
- For Kiwi technicals, we remain close to the 20 (0.5733) and 50-day (0.5718) EMAs. Recent lows have been in the 0.5710/15 region. Upside focus may rest with a test of the 0.5760/65 region, which would put us back above the 100-day EMA.
- In Tuesday trade, US yields were slightly lower, the 10yr down 2bps to the low 4.31% region. US data was, on balance, softer than expected. Philly Fed non-mfg index came out much lower than prior -32.5 vs. -13.1, while Conf. Board Consumer Confidence printed 92.9, versus 94.0 forecast. The Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey for March fully reversed February's improvement.
- NZ-US 2yr swap spreads held near recent lows, last -53bps. In the equity space, EU markets were firmer across the board, although this didn't help EUR performance. SEK and JPY were the top G10 performers. US equities finished marginally higher.
- The local data calendar is empty today, but we do have Aust monthly Feb CPI, which could see spill over to NZD. AUD/NZD was last near 1.1000, just off recent highs (1.1004).
