BOBL TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22
- RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
- RES 1: 118.950 High May 12 / 20
- PRICE: 118.690 @ 06:04 BST May 23
- SUP 1: 118.390 Low May 22
- SUP 2: 118.060 Low May 14 and 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: 117.600 Low Mar 28
The recovery since May 14 in Bobl futures signals a possible reversal and the end of the corrective cycle between Apr 22 - May 15. A resumption of gains would open 118.950, the May 12 / 20 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead expose 117.680, the Apr 9 low and a key support. The bear trigger is 118.060, the May 14 / 15 low.
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JGBS: Futures Off Lows, Twist-Flattener Remains, PPI Services Tomorrow
JGB futures are weaker but at session highs, -14 compared to settlement levels
- Risk-on sentiment extended into today's Asia-Pacific session after US President Trump stated that he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell.
- Trump also stated that the final tariff number for China wouldn't be near the current 145%.
- Cash US tsys have twist-flattened in today's Asia-Pac session, with yields 2bps higher to 8bps lower.
- While attention has been mostly focused abroad, the latest Reuters Poll on the BoJ Outlook showed: 84% of economists expect the BoJ to keep the key interest rate at 0.50% through end-June. 52% predict a rate hike to 0.75% in Q3, down from 70% in the March poll. Only 28% now expect a July hike, compared to 70% in March; 23% foresee the next hike happening in 2026 or later. 87% say Japan is unlikely to enter a recession in 2025.
- The cash JGB curve has twist-flattened, pivoting at the 20-year, with yields 2bps higher to 6bps lower.
- The swaps curve has also twist-flattened, with rates 2bps higher to 5bps lower.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see PPI Services, International Investment Flow and Machine Orders data alongside 2-year supply.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 23-Apr | 0815 | FR | S&P Global PMI (p) |
| 23-Apr | 0830 | DE | S&P Global PMI (p) |
| 23-Apr | 0900 | EU | S&P Global PMI (p) |
| 23-Apr | 1000 | EU | Construction Production / Trade Balance |
| 23-Apr | 1100 | EU | ECB Wage Tracker |
| 23-Apr | 2015 | EU | ECB's Lane in panel on Central Bankers' Dilemmas |
| 23-Apr | 2045 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel on Tokenization |
| 24-Apr | 0745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 24-Apr | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 24-Apr | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24-Apr | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 24-Apr | 1400 | EU | ECB's Lane at Peterson Institute Webcast |
| 25-Apr | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 119.630 @ 05:55 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: 119.030 Low Apr 17
- SUP 2: 118.703 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
Bobl futures are holding on to their latest highs. Recent weakness appears corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. Firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, is at 118.703.
