BOBL TECHS: (M5) Maintains A Softer Tone
- RES 4: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 119.780 High Apr 22
- RES 2: 119.600 High May 7
- RES 1: 118.684/118.916 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 118.080 @ 06:14 BST May 15
- SUP 1: 118.060 Low May 14
- SUP 2: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 3: 117.600 Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: 117.410 Low Mar 27
For now a strong bearish corrective phase in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s extension strengthens the near-term bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and pierced 118.105, 50.0% of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull run. This exposes 117.680, the Apr 9 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 118.916, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal a potential reversal.
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EURGBP TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Trend Condition
- RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 1: 0.8738 High Apr 11
- PRICE: 0.8596 @ 06:29 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 0.8520/0.8482 Low Apr 10 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8413 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support
- SUP 4: 0.8299 Low Mar 5
Despite the fade off highs, a bull trend in EURGBP remains intact. Note that a deeper retracement would allow a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at 0.8482, the 20-day EMA. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8413. The area between these two averages represents a key support zone. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 0.8781, a Fibonacci projection point.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.680 High Apr 9
- PRICE: 107.490 @ 06:04 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 107.160/106.965 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 and key support
- SUP 2: 106.830 Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: 106.728 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 106.630 Low Mar 18
Schatz futures are unchanged and the contract remains below last week’s high. For now, the recent pullback appears corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. The trend condition remains bullish - price has recently traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. The break highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.800. Key support to watch lies at 106.965, the Apr 9 low.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (BST Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 15-Apr | 0700 | Feb/Mar | Labour Market Survey |
| 16-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Consumer inflation report/ Producer Prices |
| 23-Apr | 0001 | Mar | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 23-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Apr | 0730 | DMO remit revision following FY24/25 CGNCR | |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 23-Apr | 1130 | BOE's Pill speech at University of Leeds | |
| 23-Apr | 1815 | BOE's Bailey at Institute of International Finance | |
| 23-Apr | 1900 | BOE's Breeden on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability | |
| 24-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25-Apr | 0001 | Apr | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Retail Sales |
| 25-Apr | 2015 | BOE's Greene on Inflation, growth and moentary policy | |
| 28-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Distributive Trades |
