BUND TECHS: (M5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 128.72 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 128.01 @ 05:46 GMT Mar 26
- SUP 1: 127.20/126.53 Low Mar 17 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. Resistance remains intact and - for now - the latest move higher is considered corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. A recent impulsive sell-off reinforced a bear theme and signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range.
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EURUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Resistance
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0516 @ 05:58 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 1.00436/01 50-day EMA / Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.0373 Low Feb 13
- SUP 3: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
- SUP 4: 1.0280 Low Feb 10 and a key support
The current bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high, today. Attention is on resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and a reversal trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. For bears, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this support would signal a potential reversal.
CHINA: Country Wrap: Regional Travel Jumps over Spring Festival.
- The Trump administration is proposing new fees on Chinese built cargo ships in a bid to increase global trade on US ships (source: BBG).
- Vietnam will impose tariffs on Chinse Steel according to the Ministry of Industry (source: BBG)
- The total number of inter-regional passenger trips across China during the 40-day Spring Festival travel rush reached a record of 9.02 billion, official data showed Sunday, a 7.1-percent increase over the same period in 2024 (source: Xinhua)
- China’s key bourses are having a poor start to the week, with the Hang Seng down by -0.66%, CSI 300 -0.30%, Shanghai -0.26%, Shenzhen -0.20%.
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1717 Per USD; Estimate 7.2532
- Bonds: a sell off today with the CGB10YR +2bps higher at 1.77%
BUND TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 132.97 High Feb 13 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 132.90 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 132.29 @ 05:23 GMT Feb 24
- SUP 1: 131.26 Low Feb 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
The rebound in Bund futures on Friday appears to be corrective - for now. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention turns to key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. A break of this level would resume the bear cycle that started Feb 5.
