SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 107.800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.735 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 107.495 @ 08:21 BST May 2
- SUP 1: 107.387 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 107.252 38.2% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 107.125 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. Sights are on resistance at 107.775, the Apr 7 high and bull trigger. Clearance of 107.775 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 107.812, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch lies at 107.387, the 20-day EMA.
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CROSS ASSET: Bund is leading gains in Core Bonds
- Treasuries are starting to get dragged higher, European Govies lead, as Bund closed its Opening gap earlier.
The Immediate area of interest for Bund is still at 129.54/129.60. - For the US Tnotes (TYH5), while the March high is at 112.01, the March and the 2025 low in the 10yr Yield of 4.1040%, would equate today to 112.03+.
- US Emini is starting to tilt to the downside.
- USDJPY is paring some gains taking its cue from the move in Yields.
US TSYS: Supported By Screen Buying Programme, Liberation Day Outcome Eyed
Tsys supported by the early downtick in European equities, with the impending “Liberation Day” tariff announcements out of the U.S. front of mind.
- Yields back to little changed on the day, with the Asia-Pac weakness, driven by reports pointing to Trump considering some slightly more lenient tariffs, reversed.
- TY futures comfortably within yesterday’s range.
- A screen buying programme across TU, FV & TY futures ahead of the European cash equity open plays into the bid.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: $36.560 - 1.236 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 14 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: $35.463 - 1.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 14 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- PRICE: $34.731 @ 08:02 BST Apr 2
- SUP 1: $33.408 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $32.665 - Low Mar 21
- SUP 3: $32.591/31.814 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 11
- SUP 4: $30.815 - Low Feb 28 and key support
Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, they remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this condition. The metal has breached $34.233, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $33.408, the 20-day EMA.
