AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Bounce Fades

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 1bp cheaper after US tsys finished the NY session showing a twist-flattening, with yields 3bps higher to 3bps lower, pivoting at the 7-year. 

• US tsy yields rose to their daily highs after Retail Sales data was released, with the market focusing more on the stronger control group sales, but the move wasn’t sustained and yields subsequently tracked lower.
• Headline advance retail sales were much weaker than expected in February but the control group sales rose 1.0% vs the 0.4% expected, more than offsetting the downward revision to Jan (-1.0% vs -0.8% prelim).
• The focus remains on Wednesday's FPMC policy announcement.  
• Swap rates are 1bp higher.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 25bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 63bps by November 2025.
• Today, the local calendar will see Non-Resident Bond Holdings data.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.0% May-54 bond.
• The RBNZ will start the repurchase program of the Sep-25 inflation-indexed bond on March 21. The operation has no implications for monetary policy stance. 

Yen lagged broader USD weakness on Monday, down 0.38% versus the USD, the only G10 currency to fall against the dollar. Broader risk appetite continued to recover in the equity space, which weighed on yen, particularly against higher beta plays. USD/JPY tracks in the 149.20 region in early Tuesday dealings. 

• For USD/JPY technicals, we aren't too far away from the 20-day EMA (near 149.40/45). However, stronger resistance is likely at the March 3 high at 151.30. moving average studies remain in bear mode for the pair, with the recent move higher deemed to be corrective. 146.54, the March 11 lows is eyed on the downside, which is also the bear trigger.
• The continued rally in global equities undermined yen, with US and EU aggregate indices higher for Monday. US-JP yield differentials have stabilized around recent lows as well, despite generally softer US data outcomes. Monday saw much weaker Retail Sales and down-revisions to the prior reading, which offset strong performances in core categories.
• The local data calendar just has the Jan tertiary activity index on tap today, as well as Tokyo condominiums for sale, which are unlikely to be market movers. Tomorrow's BoJ meeting outcome is seen as no change by the economic consensus.
• In the FX option expiry space, note the following for NY cut later today: Y147.00($1.3bln), Y148.50($1.4bln), Y149.00($1.2bln), Y150.00($1.5bln). 

• Bank Indonesia to Sell 92D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 186D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 277D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 368D SVBI Bills
• Indonesia To Sell 2035 Bonds (FR0103)
• Indonesia To Sell 2030 Bonds (FR0104)
• Indonesia To Sell 2040 Bonds (FR0106)
• Indonesia To Sell 2045 Bonds (FR0107)
• Indonesia To Sell 2054 Bonds (FR0102)
• Indonesia To Sell 2064 Bonds (FR0105)
• Indonesia To Sell 350D Bills (SPN12260305)
• Indonesia To Sell 90D Bills (SPN03250618)
• Bank of Thailand to Sell THB60bn of 91-Days Bills
• MAS to Sell S$1.4bn 252-Day Bills on March 18
• MAS to Sell S$23bn 84-Day Bills on March 18
• MAS to Sell S$15.9bn 31-Day Bills on March 18
• Philippines To Sell PHP 30.0Bln 2034 Bonds (PH0000058133*)
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$14bn 182-Day Bills
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$61.686bn 91-Day Bills