AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact For Now
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.745 @ 14:57 BST May 30
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures rallied well on the RBA rate decision last week, reversing a small part of recent weakness. Recent price action pressured prices through to new pullback lows last week. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition. To the upside, a recovery of recent losses would shift attention to resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.
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US TSYS: US TSYS - Front End Leads Yield lower
TYM5 reopens at 112-10, up 0-03 from closing levels in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Overnight US 10-year yields had a range of 4.1332% - 4.2254%, closing near the lows.
- Treasury yields ended mixed overnight, the front-end was down by up to 5bps, steepening the yield curve.(2s10s +3.75 at 55.51)
- “The US economy shrank more than expected in the first quarter, its first contraction since 2022. Inflation-adjusted GDP decreased an annualized 0.3% on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge.”(per BBG)
- “The US Treasury said it’s weighing “enhancements” to its buyback program, including changes to maximum purchase amounts, after recent turmoil.”(per BBG)
- The 10-year Yield, drifts back towards the first target of 4.10%. The market is focusing on the weakness in global growth and looking through inflation for the moment.
US: Trump Touts Tech Investment Pledges, Reiterates Call For Lower Rates
US President Trump has concluded his speech at the White House, which focused on Investing In America. Much of the speech was aimed at highlighting pledged investment amounts into the US economy from tech bellwether firms. The US administration stated that such pledges now total $8trln.
- Trump also reiterated recent remarks around interest rates, with the following BBG quotes of note: "*TRUMP: INTEREST RATES SHOULD GO DOWN
*TRUMP: INTEREST RATES GOING DOWN WOULD BE NICE FOR HOME BUYERS" - BBG, with Trump reiterating he wasn't a hug fan of Fed Chair Powell. - This comes after data overnight showed US Q1 GDP growth contracted, albeit fairly close to market expectations.
- On tariffs, Trump stated that the administration is giving time for manufacturing to come onshore in the US, particularly for semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. However, after a period of time a tariff wall will come up, although Trump didn't specify timings on this.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Within Range of Highs
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.730 @ 16:21 GMT Apr 30
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures continue to circle just below recent contract highs, having cleared resistance on the continuation contract. The rally has taken out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, any reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.
