AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact For Now
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.550 @ 15:15 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures have rallied well on the RBA rate decision, reversing a small part of recent weakness. Recent price action pressured prices through to new pullback lows last week. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition. To the upside, a recovery of recent losses would shift attention to resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.
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US TSYS: Sell-Off
TYM5 reopens at 110-24, down 0-02 from closing levels in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Overnight US 10-year yields had a range of 4.3287% - 4.4185%, closing near the highs around 4.41%, as US treasuries got sold when risk turned lower.
- Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Monday, curves twist steeper as the short end outperforms a sell-off in the long end, risk sentiment hampered as stocks hold at or near session lows.
- Global trade remains the greater concern, markets await something concrete in tariff negotiations vs. hopes and promises that talks with dozens of countries are going well, while Pres Trump berates Fed Chairman Powell and reiterates a call for "preemptive cuts".
- Yields have bounced off their support around the 4.25 area, and the correlation between yields and the USD continues to break down as US assets are being exited en masse.
- The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook tonight. The market will be keen to see its assessment of the recent turmoil.
GOLD: Another Record High, Gold Surges Through $3400
Gold remained on the front foot through Monday trade, albeit in limited liquidity with EU markets still closed. We track near $3424 in early Tuesday dealings, just off session highs from Monday (3430.60), which was a fresh record high. Gold gained 2.92% for Monday's session with broad USD weakness, coupled with risk off in the US equity space driving gains.
- The RSI (14) on gold is in overbought conditions, last above 77, but we have been in this state on numerous occasions already in 2025, with the market comfortable buying gold dips. We have the 20-day EMA back under $3190. Lows from the end of last week were at $3284.
- Topside focus is likely to rest on round figure resistance at $3500. Note Goldman Sachs stated bullion could hit $4000 by mid next year (via BBG).
- US Tsy yields were sharply higher at the back end of the curve, the 10yr up 9bps to 4.41% in Monday trade. President Trump comments berated Fed Chairman Powell and reiterated a call for "preemptive cuts". This raised fears of Fed independence and added to the negative risk mood. The SPX fell 2.36%.
ASIA: Coming Up In Asian Markets On Tuesday
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| 0900BST | 1600HKT | 1800AEST | Taiwan Mar Unemployment Rate |
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