EU TRANSPORTATION: Lufthansa; leaks it will buy out remaining ITA (Corriere)

Sep-11 08:24

(LHAGR: Baa3/BBB-/BBB-)

We see it adding +0.4x onto Lufthansa's current 2.0x levered balance sheet as it consolidates ITA's debt load. The €325m in cash spend required is insignificant; capex guidance this year is at €2.7-3.3b with FCF net of it to be stable around last years €840m.

  • Leaks are it will take its current 41% stake to 90% paying the same price as it did for the initial 41% (€325m) - with another €100m contingent on certain targets being reached.
    • Lufthansa had this call option which it has said in the past it could exercise as early as this summer. ITA is a currently Italian Gov. owned airline.
  • It is currently recorded as a equity investment - if it moves to 90% ITA financials will be fully consolidated:
    • FY24 ITA did €3.1b in revenues, €337m in EBITDA (8% of LHAGR) & €3m in EBIT. Strong capacity driven growth across all last year.
    • Net debt of €2.6b (mostly leases) - will add to Lufthansa's €8.1b debt load.
    • It adds 11-12% in capacity to LHAGR with its 99 aircraft and 18m passengers/yr.

Historical bullets

SONIA OPTIONS: Call Spread vs Put Spread

Aug-12 08:23

SFIM6 96.90/97.10cs vs 96.00/95.85ps, bought the cs for 1.25 in 5k.

FRANCE DATA: BdF Expects Q2 GDP To Be Confirmed At 0.3%

Aug-12 08:21

Banque d France's expects Q2 GDP growth to be confirmed at 0.3% Q/Q following the releaase of the August monhtly business survey. Based on a survey of 8,500 businesses between July 22 - August 5, the survey notes that:

  • "Activity continued to grow significantly in July in industry and construction, and more moderately in market services. In August, according to business expectations (which should be interpreted with greater caution this month due to the holidays), activity would remain on the rise in industry and construction and would change little in services. Order books are considered slightly less empty in industry excluding aeronautics, as well as in construction, while remaining relatively low".
  • "Our monthly uncertainty indicator, constructed from a textual analysis of comments from the companies surveyed, continues to decline in all three sectors, and more significantly in construction. It remains significantly higher in industry compared to services and construction, which reflects the greater exposure of this sector to international trade, particularly to the United States' tariff policy".
  • "Based on information from the Banque de France's monthly business survey, supplemented by other available data (industrial production indices, INSEE surveys, and high-frequency data), we estimate that GDP will grow in the third quarter at a pace close to that observed in the previous quarter. Activity will be driven by the dynamism of value added in the manufacturing industry, as suggested by the monthly business survey. Value added will also increase in market and non-market services, but will decline in construction and energy".

EQUITIES: Estoxx Put Spread

Aug-12 08:21

SX5E (19th Sep) 4900/4550ps, bought for 11 in 7.5k.