EUROZONE DATA: Looks Like An Upside Surprise To Q2 Compensation Per Employee

• The USD Index holds within a tight range so far Wednesday, keeping the weekly range at 98.585 - 99.073 for now. With relatively little data to distract, focus will remain on Trump's activities this week, particularly as the White House's deadline for Russia establishing a ceasefire with Ukraine expires this Friday. Trump's special envoy is meeting with the Russian President in Moscow today - and any comments following the discussions will be carefully watched.
• As such, the USD is mixed across G10 - but outperformance in AUD, NZD currencies is noted. AUD/USD is through to a new weekly high at 0.6496 on continued equity strength - but the 50-dma remains out of reach for now at 0.6513. Equities in Europe are firmer, and US futures are also strong as markets look to reverse the weak daily close on Wall Street after the ISM services print.
• AUD/JPY continues to trade either side of the 200-dma, and a break above 96.17 is needed to make progress back toward the cycle high of 97.43 and a formal resumption of the broader uptrend.
• Tier one datapoints are few and far between Wednesday, with just Canadian final July PMI numbers and Weekly MBA mortgage applications due. Fed's Cook, Collins and Daly are on the schedule to speak today, and while none of them dissented at the most recent Fed meeting, markets will still be looking to gauge any signal on what could tip their vote to cut rates later this year.
• Possibly more importantly, President Trump is set to make an announcement at 2130BST/1630ET today, and while the President has yet to specify what topic this will cover, markets expect he could be covering a decision on Russian secondary sanctions, his nomination for the next Fed governor to replace Kugler or the appointee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after he fired the previous head of the department on Friday.

• MNI: EUROZONE JUN RETAIL SALES +0.3% M/M, +3.1% Y/Y

Eurozone (real) retail sales were inline with expectations in June on a sequential comparison, at 0.3% M/M, but the print was stronger on a level basis considering a positive revision to May (now -0.3%, revised from -0.7%). The uptrend in place since late-2023 continues even the level is still a little below 2021 highs.

• Across sectors, all main categories rose after across the board declines in May: Food, drinks, tobacco 0.2% M/M, non-food products ex automotive fuel 0.6%, automotive fuel 0.4%. None of the categories stand out in in YTD directional trends.
• Across countries, the June print was a bit mixed, with three out of the "big 4" printing positive but France weak at -0.9% M/M.
• The overall Y/Y print was 3.1% in June, firmer than consensus of 2.6% (1.9% May, revised from 1.8%). Across categories, non-food products and auto fuel continue to fare better Y/Y than the food, drinks, tobacco category.
• Eurozone consumer confidence ticked up a little most recently but remains subdued: "Consumers’ perception of their households’ financial situation, both backward- and forward-looking, and their intentions to make major purchases improved, while their expectations about the general economic situation in their country worsened", the European Commission commented on the latest respective release.
• A June McKinsey study found that inflation remains consumers' main concern in the EU, although this has decreased compared with last year.