AUSSIE BONDS: Local Yields Pressing Towards Dec Highs, RBA Mins Tomorrow
Aussie bond futures are notably weaker, amidst negative spill over from both US and JGB futures moves to start the week. The 10yr Aussie bond future is around 5.5bps lower, last near 95.14, which brings us back close to Dec lows (95.12 from Dec 10). 3yr futures are off close to the same amount and back around 95.75 (but remain a little more above recent lows relative to the 10yr). ACGB yields are up around 4-5bps across the benchmarks, with fairly uniform moves across the curve.
- Spill over from JGB moves has been apparent as markets grapple with uncertainty around the timing of further BoJ rate hikes, while fresh fiscal stimulus is also coming for Japan.
- For the ACGB 10yr yield, we are back around 4.80%, which marked earlier Dec highs, a clean break higher could the 5% area targeted, last touched in 2023. For the 3yr, upside focus will rest at 4.200% (last 4.16%).
- The 3/10s curve is little changed near +63bps, while the AU-US 10yr spread is close to recent highs, last +63bps.
- Tomorrow, we get the RBA minutes from the Dec policy meeting. It decided to leave rates at 3.6% this month where they have been since August, which was expected, but a rate cut was not part of the discussion. There are no data releases this week or next. Governor Bullock said in the December press conference that 2026's discussions are likely to be around whether to leave rates at 3.6% or increase them, as the Board is uncomfortable with where inflation currently is. This suggests that the RBA's stance is skewed to the upside.
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RATINGS: Moody's Upgrades Italy To Baa2 From Baa3, Still A Notch Below Others
The Moody's upgrade to Italy's credit rating announced late Friday was the first from the agency since 2002 but shouldn't be considered a major surprise. Among the 3 major ratings agencies, Moody's had the lowest rating on Italy - by two notches (Fitch and S&P both BBB+).
- So this upgrade to Baa2 from Baa3 represents something of a closing of that gap rather than a major breakthrough for Italy.
- From the release:
- "The rating upgrade reflects a consistent track-record of political and policy stability which enhances the effectiveness of economic and fiscal reforms and investment implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). It also points to prospects of further policy actions supporting growth and fiscal consolidation beyond the plan's deadline in August 2026. As a result, we expect that Italy's high government debt burden will gradually decline from 2027 onwards."
FED: Heading Into Its Final Weeks, QT Pace Remains At $20B/Month (2/2)
On the asset side of the Fed balance sheet, we saw a $25B drop in assets, of which just $2B could be attributed to QT in one of its final weeks (ends Dec 1).
- Instead it was a $6B drop in dealer repo operations vs a week earlier, and $17B in "other" areas that aren't related directly to monetary policy and typically don't have any significant impact on the size of the balance sheet (such changes are largely due to items such as bank premises, accrued interest, and other accounts receivable.)
- Discount window takeup edged up $0.3B to $6.1B but remains relatively low.
- QT has totaled just under $21B over the last month, around the expected pace, though as noted this will flatline in December with a pickup in net bills as MBS proceeds are rolled over into T-bills.
LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI & Claims Headline Thanksgiving Week
A Thanksgiving-condensed week sees data highlights from delayed retail sales and PPI reports for September on Tuesday (Nov 25) before a Wednesday release for weekly jobless claims (Nov 26). Aside, the Fed’s Beige Book should also offer another important update on Wednesday for latest liaison reporting, with no Fedspeak currently scheduled around the holiday and the FOMC media blackout due to start on Saturday, Nov 29.
- As we regularly comment in this weekly publication, Redbook and Chicago Fed CARTS indicators point to solid nominal growth in retail sales, something broadly reflected in analyst consensus for the release.
- PPI inflation will offer a useful albeit not overly timely update on input cost pressures.
- Jobless claims will be watched particularly closely, both for latest initial claims for signs of layoffs and a notable update for continuing claims. The latter covers the payrolls reference period for November and will be an important reference point for FOMC members trying to get a sense of latest unemployment rate clues with the next payrolls reports coming after the Dec 9-10 FOMC decision (going into it with this week’s 0.12bp rise to 4.44% back in September).
