EGBS: Light Bear Steepening, Spreads To Bunds Little Changed
Jul-17 06:42
Light bear steepening bias on the German curve this morning, with yields flat to 1.5bp higher.
- Presence of French & Spanish supply weighing, as well as the rally in equities linked to TSMC earnings guidance.
- EGB spreads to Bunds within 0.5bp of yesterday’s closing levels, with the bid in equities providing some counter to any widening pressure stemming from Germany rejecting the EU’s EUR2tln budget proposal for 2028-2034.
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USD: AUD and NZD are the best early performers
Jun-17 06:41
- Overall the Dollar is flat against most G10s, the early interesting chart is still the AUDUSD, after the cross reached its best level since last November Yesterday.
- This level stands at 0.6552, and a clear follow through would open to 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24 and 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24.
- The Kiwi is the 2nd best early performer, and similar to the Aussie, the NZDUSD exchanged hands at its highest level since October Yesterday.
- Yesterday's printed high is at 0.6088, but it is most likely that Market Participants will be looking for the initial resistance circa 0.6106.
BOJ: Ueda Sticks To Policy Statement Script At Start of Presser
Jun-17 06:38
The BOJ press conference has started. Governor Ueda starts by discussing the decision on JGB purchases - all very much in line with the policy statement.
- A reminder that the BOJ announced that it would trim bond buying by ¥200bn/per quarter from April 2026 next year. The current pace had been at a reduction of ¥400bn per quarter. There was one dissenter to this decision, board member Tamura, who wanted to keep the pace around ¥400bn. He also argued that long term rates should be determined by the market.
- USDJPY is currently -0.1% lower on the session at 144.59.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Condition Remains Bullish
Jun-17 06:38
- RES 4: 6200.00 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 6172.50 High Feb 24
- RES 2: 6134.00 High Feb 26
- RES 1: 6128.75 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6072.50 @ 07:27 BST Jun 17
- SUP 1: 5979.00/5890.99 Low Jun 13 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2:5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
- SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high last Wednesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. For now, the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6000.18, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 5890.99. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.
