Bund futures moved off session highs following a weak 20/30-year auction, now +19 ticks at 129.26 (session highs were 129.35). A technical bear threat is still present for now, with a move above the 50-day EMA at 129.89 required to signal a reversal.
- German yields are 1-1.5bps lower, with the curve bull flattening.
- Alongside the Bund auction, Finland is launching a new 7-year RFGB via syndication. The ESM has also sent an RFP for a transaction, likely next week.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are biased slightly wider, with OATs underperforming. The BTP/Bund spread has inched back above 80bps.
- ECB President Lagarde suggested global uncertainty has been “alleviated, but certainly not eliminated”. Overall, she did little to push back on current market pricing (1.5bps of cuts through September, 12bps through December).
- ECB final headline and core July HICP confirmed flash estimates on a rounded basis, while services saw a small upward revision to 3.2% Y/Y.