ECB: Lagarde Says Effective US Tariff Rate "Somewhat Higher" Than June Baseline

TYU5 110/112 strangle bought paper paid 0-45 on ~18.6K.

Early London flow of note includes a ~5K screen buyer of TYU5 at 111-01+/02, which has helped underpin the rally and took the contract to fresh session highs at 111-02+.

It's hard to identify an overt driver for the USD weakness/bond rally this morning, especially given the scope of the moves in FI and lack of meaningful, immediate headline flow surrounding the moves.

• Some have pointed to a BBG sources story noting that “EU envoys are set to meet as early as this week to formulate a plan for measures to respond to a possible no-deal scenario with U.S. President Trump, whose tariff negotiating position is seen to have stiffened ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline. The overwhelming preference is to keep negotiations with Washington on track in a bid for an outcome to the impasse ahead of next month’s deadline.”
• Even if that has drove the rally in bonds, it is hard to see how the story is particularly positive for European equities and the EUR (granted, we could see a return to the theme of higher tariffs/trade barriers being a market negative for the USD).
• The move in those assets could come from the “made for Germany” initiative moving closer to reality, although the idea of the initiative has been doing the rounds for at least a few weeks (as businesses and investors in Germany look to scale up dialogue with the government and enhance investment in the Eurozone’s largest economy).
• News that Japanese PM Ishiba intends to stay on despite the loss of control of the country’s upper house may also be a factor, although we won’t get a clearer read on Japanese market reaction until Tuesday, when they reopen after a long weekend.