EUROZONE DATA: June Retails Sales Stronger Than Expected After Revisions
Eurozone (real) retail sales were inline with expectations in June on a sequential comparison, at 0.3% M/M, but the print was stronger on a level basis considering a positive revision to May (now -0.3%, revised from -0.7%). The uptrend in place since late-2023 continues even the level is still a little below 2021 highs.
- Across sectors, all main categories rose after across the board declines in May: Food, drinks, tobacco 0.2% M/M, non-food products ex automotive fuel 0.6%, automotive fuel 0.4%. None of the categories stand out in in YTD directional trends.
- Across countries, the June print was a bit mixed, with three out of the "big 4" printing positive but France weak at -0.9% M/M.
- The overall Y/Y print was 3.1% in June, firmer than consensus of 2.6% (1.9% May, revised from 1.8%). Across categories, non-food products and auto fuel continue to fare better Y/Y than the food, drinks, tobacco category.
- Eurozone consumer confidence ticked up a little most recently but remains subdued: "Consumers’ perception of their households’ financial situation, both backward- and forward-looking, and their intentions to make major purchases improved, while their expectations about the general economic situation in their country worsened", the European Commission commented on the latest respective release.
- A June McKinsey study found that inflation remains consumers' main concern in the EU, although this has decreased compared with last year.
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COMMODITIES: Gold Continues to Hover Just Above Support at 50-Day EMA
WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high. Recent gains appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.84. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high. Recent weakness in Gold resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a trendline drawn from the Dec 30 ‘24 low and connected to the Feb 28 low. A clear break of both trend tools would signal scope for a deeper correction, and open $3245.5, May 29 low. Note that the latest recovery highlights a possible false trendline break. A resumption of gains would refocus attention $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.1 or -0.15% at $66.87
- Natural Gas down $0.11 or -3.34% at $3.295
- Gold spot down $27.21 or -0.82% at $3309.57
- Copper down $12.85 or -2.5% at $501.45
- Silver down $0.33 or -0.89% at $36.6015
- Platinum down $34.26 or -2.45% at $1363.77
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Trend Signal Unchanged and Bullish
Short-term trend signals in Eurostoxx 50 futures remain bearish, however, the recovery from the Jun 23 low still appears to be a reversal and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. Price has pierced both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a breach of 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, reinstates a bearish theme. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This has been followed by a breach of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 6000.73.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 223.2 pts or -0.56% at 39587.68 and the TOPIX ended 16.23 pts lower or -0.57% at 2811.72.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 0.808 pts or +0.02% at 3473.127 and the HANG SENG ended 28.23 pts lower or -0.12% at 23887.83.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 85.68 pts or +0.36% at 23870.98, FTSE 100 lower by 9.93 pts or -0.11% at 8813.08, CAC 40 down 6.09 pts or -0.08% at 7690.49 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 6.13 pts or +0.12% at 5294.88.
- Dow Jones mini down 74 pts or -0.16% at 45024, S&P 500 mini down 29 pts or -0.46% at 6295.5, NASDAQ mini down 141.25 pts or -0.61% at 22921.5.
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