GERMAN DATA: June Industrial Production Weaker Then Expected
- June industrial production was weaker than expected on first sight. Below consensus and a negative revision. "The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production in the 2nd quarter of 2025 declined by 1.0% and thus also dropped to the same low level it last reached in the first half of 2020."
- "The negative development of production in June 2025 was mainly attributable to the decrease seen in the manufacture of machinery and equipment (-5.3% on the previous month after calendar and seasonal adjustment), the pharmaceutical industry (-11.0%) and the food industry (-6.3%). By contrast, the growth recorded in energy production (+3.1%) had a positive effect.", Destatis comments on drivers.
- Follows sideways momentum on weak levels on yesterday's factory orders.
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BTP TECHS: (U5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.81 @ Close Jul 7
- SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and short-term phases of weakness appear corrective - for now. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends
- RES 4: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 148.03 High Jun 23
- RES 2: 146.77 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg
- RES 1: 146.45 Intraday high
- PRICE: 146.14 @ 07:03 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
- SUP 2: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
- SUP 4: 141.49 Low Apr 23
USDJPY traded higher Monday. The recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 144.95, and the daily close above the EMA highlights a stronger reversal. 146.19, the Jun 24 high, has been pierced. An extension would open 146.77 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, signalling a dominant medium-term downtrend. First support to watch lies at 144.23, the Jun 7 low.
RBA: Bullock - More Easing Likely To Come, Waiting On Q2 CPI Data
RBA Governor Bullock's press conference is stressing that the direction of policy rates is still skewed lower. Today's decision reflected a need to wait for more data to cut rates further, particularly on inflation. The Governor stated that if Q2 inflation (which prints at the end of this month) comes in as the central bank forecast, it can ease further. This sets up for an August cut, although Bullock wouldn't be drawn on whether we could see a 50bps cut at that meeting.
- Bullock stated the board members who voted to hold rates steady today weren't convinced by the recent monthly inflation figures, and want to see the fuller inflation picture from the Q2 data. This, Bullock stressed, meant that today's decision on rates was more about timing rather than direction.
- Bullock also noted at the next policy meeting the central bank will have more information on the global trade backdrop.
