AUSTRALIA: January Holidays Add Uncertainty To Employment Data
Feb-19 04:43
With the RBA saying in its February meeting statement that the labour market “tightened a little further in late 2024” and Governor Bullock admitting that it was the strongest argument for rates to be left on hold, January jobs data on Thursday are likely to be watched closely. Holidays though could make it volatile. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 20k rise in employment after December’s 56.3k and a 0.1pp tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.
- Employment forecasts range from +5k to +40k but local banks are all expecting it to print below consensus. ANZ and CBA are projecting +10k and NAB and Westpac +15k.
- There is a significant probability that people took time off between jobs in January to coincide with summer holidays. Thus any volatility needs to be looked through. In January 2024, employment rose only 2k and then jumped 113.9k in February.
- Forecasters are split over whether the unemployment rate will be unchanged at 4.0% (11 analysts on Bloomberg) or increase to 4.1% (14 analysts). CBA, NAB and Westpac are all in line with consensus at 4.1%, while ANZ expects it to be unchanged at 4.0%.
- The participation rate is expected to be steady at 67.1%, an equal record high.
- Given that the RBA looks at a range of labour market indicators, the trend in hours worked, the underemployment and youth unemployment rates will also be important.
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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Trade In Narrow Ranges Ahead Of Inauguration
Jan-20 04:35
- Unsurprisingly tsys futures have been very quiet today, we have traded in narrow ranges however right now trade off session lows with TU unchanged at 102-23+, while TY is -01¼ at 108-15+
- The medium-term trend in futures remains bearish, however Wednesday’s gains and Thursday’s follow through, highlight a stronger S/T corrective cycle. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 108-17. This exposes 109-06, the Dec 31 high, and 109-18+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The bear trigger has been defined at 107-06, the Jan 13 low.
- Donald Trump plans to sign over 200 executive orders on Day 1, focusing on immigration, energy, deregulation, and government reforms. Key actions include declaring a border emergency, resuming border wall construction, reversing Biden-era energy policies, pausing offshore wind leases, and reinstating merit-based federal hiring. Additional measures include withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, suspending security clearances for officials linked to the Hunter Biden laptop story, and imposing a "DOGE" hiring freeze, per Fox News.
- It is Martin Luther King day today, so no cash tsys trading or data. Focus will be squaring on the Inauguration of President Trump and any executive orders he signs on day 1, while corporate earnings are to kick off on Tuesday.
FOREX: USD Weaker As Markets Await Trump Inauguration, Recent Ranges Holding
Jan-20 04:32
The USD is weaker across the board against all of G10 FX. The BBDXY index is around 0.25% softer, last near 1313. Recent lows in the index (1306.74) are still intact to the downside. We are seeing a slight outperformance trend from higher beta plays.
- Sentiment appears to be on the improve due to carry from Trump and Xi's phone call on Friday. The market grabbing onto any sense of better relations between the two countries. Trump also reportedly told his advisors that he would like to travel to China (per the WSJ over the weekend).
- Regional equity markets are mostly firmer, with Hong Kong the best performer, likely aided the FX risk mood. US equity futures are down but only slightly and this follows strong cash gains on Friday. There is no US cash Tsy trading today due to Martin L. King Day later in the US. Tsy futures are slightly softer.
- NZD/USD is up nearly 0.50%, last near the 0.5610/15 area. Recent highs at 0.5651 remain intact. For AUD/USD we are lagging slightly, up close to 0.35%, last near 0.6215 (likewise recent highs at 0.6246 haven't been breached. USD/CNH is sub 7.3300 and below its 20-day EMA support point.
- USD/JPY is back under 156.00, but Friday lows under 155.00 haven't been threatened at this stage. EUR/USD is up 0.30%, last near 1.0305. SEK has gained 0.40%, while GBP is back above 1.2200.
- Looking ahead, it is a relatively quiet start to the week data wise. We have the German ZEW, some ECB speak, along with UK Labor data. In Canada, the CPI prints.
OIL: Crude Little Changed As Awaits Direction From The US
Jan-20 04:13
Oil is close to flat during APAC trading today with Brent around $80.70/bbl after an intraday low of $80.76 and WTI $77.44 following a drop to $77.25/bbl. US President-elect Trump said he’ll declare a national energy emergency to unlock powers, but the impact of his administration on oil prices remains unclear. The USD index is down 0.3%.
- Trump wants to use a “national energy emergency” to be able to increase domestic oil and gas production and reverse Biden’s climate change policies, according to Bloomberg. Uncertainty remains elevated though with no details on how this declaration would be used or its impact on domestic and global markets or if he will even be able to use it. Thus, there has been little market response to the news.
- In response to questions on the issue, Trump said on Sunday “we’re going to be using our emergency powers to allow countries and entrepreneurs and people with a lot of money build big plants, AI plants, ... We need double the energy that we already have”.
- Action on sanctions against Iran and Russia and tariffs on Canada, a large oil supplier to the US, are also significant uncertainties that oil markets are awaiting direction on. The Treasury secretary nominee Bessent has indicated that measures against Russia should be tightened.
- The US is closed for the Martin Luther King holiday but attention is on President-elect Trump’s inauguration later today and which executive orders he’ll sign on the first day.
- Later the Eurogroup meeting takes place and German December PPI, euro area November construction and the BoC business survey are released.
