GERMAN DATA: IP Confirms March As Strong Month For DE Industry Boosted by Pharma
German industrial production grew 3.0% M/M, more than consensus of 1.0% (February -1.3%). That means...
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STIR: SONIA Whites Outperform On Dovish Ex-MPC Speak
The front-end of the SONIA strip outperforms Euribor counterparts, whites +1.0 to +6.5 ticks versus yesterday’s settlement levels and reds +4.0 to +5.5 ticks. U5 futures outperform, but remain short of yesterday’s fleeting session high (current 96.205 vs a high of 96.355 yesterday).
- Front-end outperformance appears in part be due to dovish comments from former BOE officials Bean and Blanchflower. Bean suggested the BOE should deliver a 50bp cut in May, while Blanchflower argued for an aggressive inter-meeting cut (see here).
- BOE-dated OIS price 27bps of easing through the May decision, 3bps more dovish than yesterday’s close. Meanwhile, there are now 77bps of cuts priced through year-end (versus a dovish extreme of over 90bps yesterday morning).
- BOE’s Lombardelli speaks at 1700GMT today. She is considered close to the centre of the MPC, and hence any comments they make that deviate from the “gradual and careful” language would be deemed to be important. And of course any discussion of the impact of tariffs on the UK will be watched closely.
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| May-25 | 4.187 | -26.8 |
| Jun-25 | 4.087 | -36.9 |
| Aug-25 | 3.911 | -54.5 |
| Sep-25 | 3.833 | -62.3 |
| Nov-25 | 3.727 | -72.8 |
| Dec-25 | 3.682 | -77.3 |
| Feb-26 | 3.614 | -84.1 |
| Apr-26 | 3.599 | -85.7 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
EGB OPTIONS: Bund call spread seller
RXK5 130.50/134.00cs sold at 74.5 in 3k.
SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Reversal Wave
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $32.947/34.590 - 20-day EMA / High Mar 28
- RES 2: $32.491 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $30.815 - Low Feb 28
- PRICE: $30.172 @ 08:12 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: $28.351 - Low Apr
- SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support
Silver continues to trade in a volatile manner. Last week’s sell-off confirmed a clear reversal of its recent uptrend. The metal yesterday traded through support at $28.748, the Dec 19 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a continued sell-off, towards $27.686, the Sep 6 ‘24 low. Initial resistance to watch is $30.815, the Feb 28 low. The contract is oversold, gains would allow this set-up to unwind.
