AUSTRALIA DATA: Inflation Expectations Unchanged In Q3 At 4.4%
Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations jumped back to 4.7% in September, in line with July, after moderating in August to 3.9%. Q3 averaged 4.4% unchanged from Q2, signalling no progress on this front with the series zigzagging sideways for over a year. While petrol prices declined in August and September, they were little changed on the quarter in Q3. The widely-reported July CPI jumped 0.9pp to 2.8% y/y with the trimmed mean up 0.6pp to 2.7%, which Westpac noted may have been driven consumer expectations for the economic outlook lower in September. However in terms of news recall in the survey, inflation was at its lowest level for four years.
Australia CPI y/y% vs MI consumer inflation expectations
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USD: BBDXY - Bounces Off 1200 Going Into US CPI
The BBDXY range overnight was 1202.73 - 1208.76, Asia is currently trading around 1207. The USD bounced in the N/Y Session as some shorts pared back their exposure as we look toward the US CPI tonight. A sustained break back below 1198 points to a retest of the lows, and a bounce back towards 1220/1230 should probably be faded initially. Where the CPI comes in tonight will determine which level gets tested.
- Robin Brooks on X: “The Dollar troughed on July 2 and has been rising in fits and starts ever since. What's driving this are mounting signs the US recession isn't coming. There's obviously noise around that, like huge downward revisions to payrolls on Aug 1. But this is the story. USD is recovering...”
- Holger Zscaepitz on X: “Apollo's Sløk says the U.S. remains the most dynamic economy in the world — and he uses one simple chart to make his point: the number of new business applications.” See Fig.1 Below.
- There is a broad consensus that the USD is set to embark on a decent move lower as the world reduces its exposure to the US and repatriates a lot of these flows. This consensus will also result in some decent short squeezes as a lot of the market is positioned the same way.
- Data/Events : NFIB Small Business Optimism, CPI, Federal Budget Balance
Fig 1: Corporations Business Applications
Source: MNI - Market News/Apollo
CHINA: Central Bank Withdraws CNY46.1bn via OMO
- The PBOC issued CNY114.6 bn of 7-day reverse repo at 1.4% during this morning's operations.
- Today's maturities CNY160.7bn.
- Net liquidity withdrawal CNY46.1bn.
- The PBOC monitors and maintains liquidity in the interbank system through the issuance of reverse repo.
- The CFETS Pledged Repo Deposit Institutions 7 Day Weighted is at 1.41%, from prior close of 1.44%.
- The China overnight interbank repo rate is at 1.30%, from the prior close of 1.30%.
- The China 7-day interbank repo rate is at 1.41%, from the prior close of 1.45%.
MNI: CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY114.6 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPO TUES
- CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY114.6 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPO TUES
