EUROZONE DATA: Industrial Production Deterioration Driven By Ireland
Eurozone industrial production deteriorated at the start of Q2, printing below consensus expectations at -2.4% M/M in April (-1.7% cons; 2.4% March, downwardly revised by 0.2pp). However, the drop appears to be driven by a material reversal of previous strength from Ireland.
- Irish IP was -15.2% M/M in April vs +14.3% in March and +11.6% in February. Ireland benefitted strongly in Q1 from US tariff front-running, particularly in the pharma sector. ECB's Lagarde has mentioned in last week's press conference that the general economic outlook for the Eurozone has deteriorated for the remainder of 2025.
- Across categories, the IP drop was broad based - the series
- decreased for intermediate goods by 0.7%
- decreased for energy by 1.6%
- decreased for capital goods by 1.1%
- decreased for durable consumer goods by 0.2%
- decreased for non-durable consumer goods by 3.0%
- On a Y/Y basis, IP came in at +0.8% in May (+1.2% cons; 3.7% April, upwardly revised by 0.1pp).
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COMMODITIES: Recent Pullback in Gold Considered Technically Corrective
A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and S/T gains are considered corrective. For now, the corrective cycle remains in play and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Key resistance to watch is $63.55, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $66.41, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The latest pullback in Gold still appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is $3202.0, the May 1 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $3164.3, 61.8% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA is at $3164.5 - a key support too. The M/T trend remains bullish, a reversal would refocus attention on $3500.1, the Apr 22 high and bull trigger.
- WTI Crude down $0.34 or -0.53% at $63.33
- Natural Gas down $0.06 or -1.65% at $3.587
- Gold spot down $16.52 or -0.51% at $3233.28
- Copper up $0.15 or +0.03% at $472.45
- Silver down $0.08 or -0.24% at $32.835
- Platinum up $8.23 or +0.83% at $1000.16
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Maintains Positive Tone Following Break of Bull Trigger
A bullish theme in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Gains on Monday reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg. The continuation higher signals scope for a climb towards 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5152.85, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal. A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and this week’s appreciation reinforces bullish conditions. The contract has cleared an important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. This strengthens the bullish theme, paving the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5648.28, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 55.13 pts or -0.14% at 38128.13 and the TOPIX ended 8.85 pts lower or -0.32% at 2763.29.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 29.077 pts or +0.86% at 3403.948 and the HANG SENG ended 532.38 pts higher or +2.3% at 23640.65.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 66.65 pts or -0.28% at 23571.19, FTSE 100 lower by 1.44 pts or -0.02% at 8601.55, CAC 40 down 46.73 pts or -0.59% at 7827.1 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 27.33 pts or -0.5% at 5388.88.
- Dow Jones mini up 30 pts or +0.07% at 42260, S&P 500 mini up 1.25 pts or +0.02% at 5906, NASDAQ mini up 1.5 pts or +0.01% at 21280.5.
AUD: AUDNZD finds resistance at the initial target
- While the AUD is getting an underlying bid, a function of some early Dollar selling interest, with the Greenback now in the red across G10s despite some fade off the highs in Equities.
- The AUDNZD has drifted to session low after once again finding some resistance at the initial area target of 1.0909/1.0914, now printed a 1.0912 high.
- Next upside level is seen at 1.0935, and further upside traction in AUDNZD would open to 1.0978, not a Tech level, but where the cross was trading at post the 2nd April Tariffs announcement.
