GERMAN DATA: Increasing Willingness to Save Dampens Consumer Climate
The GfK consumer climate sees a slight decrease of 0.3 points to -20.3 for the advance July reading (June revised -0.1p to -20.0). Commercial sentiment in Germany (IFO, PMIs) has been trending up recently, but the consumer sector appears to not really follow here.
- "Consumer sentiment in Germany shows no clear trend in June. Economic and income expectations are improving. In contrast, the willingness to buy remains virtually unchanged and the willingness to save is increasing", GfK comments.
- "From the consumer's perspective, the signs of a recovery in the German economy in the coming months are growing. The economic indicator climbed to 20.1 points after a significant increase of seven points. This is the highest value since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In February 2022, 24.1 points were measured."
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MNI: GERMANY GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE JUNE -19.9
- GERMANY GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE JUNE -19.9
GERMAN DATA: GFK Consumer Confidence Inches Higher For Third Consecutive Month
German June GFK consumer confidence was essentially in line with consensus at -19.9 (cons -20.0), up slightly from May's -20.8.
- "Both the slight decline in the willingness to buy and the increasing willingness to save are currently having a dampening effect on consumer climate and are preventing the noticeable growth in income and economic prospects from having a stronger impact on the Consumer Climate this month. The savings indicator rises by 1.6 points in May – following a significant decline in the previous month – and climbs to 10.0 points".
- "Consumers' income expectations increase noticeably in May. The indicator gains 6.1 points, climbing to 10.4 points".
- "However, the willingness to buy cannot benefit from the noticeable rise in income prospects this month. After falling by 1.5 points, the indicator slips to -6.4 points"..."Despite improved income prospects, willingness to buy is not increasing. Uncertainty caused by the US government's unpredictable customs and trade policy and a rise in unemployment, which is causing many employees to worry about their own jobs, is continuing. This is causing consumer restraint, even though income expectations are currently viewed more positively".
"Despite ongoing consumer uncertainty, their economic expectations for the next 12 months continue to rise: in May, the economic indicator increases by 5.9 points to reach a value of 13.1 points. This is already the fourth increase in a row. The last time a higher value was measured was about two years ago, in April 2023, at 14.3 points".
USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 144.49/145.73 20- and 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 143.25 @ 06:53 BST May 27
- SUP 1: 142.12 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
- SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
USDJPY maintains a softer tone and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today. Support at 142.36, the May 6 low. Has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and the next key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 145.73, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
