GERMAN DATA: IFO Export Expectations Remain Below Neutral In December
The German IFO Export Expectations index rose marginally in December, to -3.1 points, from -3.8 in November. While the index is off its cycle lows, IFO continues to remain on the pessimistic side regarding German export prospects, commenting "the outlook for the first quarter of 2026 is rather subdued. Any real revival in exports just isn’t happening".
- Across sectors: "The automotive industry and mechanical engineering are predominantly cautious and expect exports to decline. The food industry also expects declines, albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous month. Manufacturers of electronic and optical products, on the other hand, are largely optimistic about the coming months. They expect growth in international business. Exports for beverage manufacturers are also picking up – the indicator rose to its highest level since April. Among manufacturers of electrical equipment, the temporary euphoria of recent months has evaporated, and they now expect only slight growth in exports."
- As a % of nominal GDP on a 12-month rolling basis, trade held steady at 4.7% as of October but remains in a downtrend longer-term, sitting 1.0pp below levels seen around a year ago. That compares with a 2015 high of 8.0% and 2022 low of 2.1%.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.87 @ Close Nov 17
- SUP 1: 120.53 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25
The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Note that the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 93.33 Low Nov 13 a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 3: 93.00 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 92.85 High Nov 14
- RES 1: 92.45 High Nov 17
- PRICE: 92.39 @ Close Nov 17
- SUP 1: 91.94 Low Nov 17
- SUP 2: 91.82 High Sep 11 and a former key breakout level
- SUP 3: 91.67 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg
- SUP 4: 91.12 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg
The latest sharp pullback in Gilt futures is considered corrective - for now - and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, the Nov 14 high. For bears, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme and open 91.67, a Fibonacci retracement.
USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 155.38 Intraday high
- PRICE: 155.06 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 153.49 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 3: 151.58 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
USDJPY traded higher Monday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and builds on recent gains. The 155.00 handle has been cleared and sights are on 155.53 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 153.49, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
