GERMAN DATA: IFO Employment Barometer Deteriorates In June
The IFO employment barometer decreased to 93.7 points in June, from 95.1 in May and not far away from April's 93.9. "Despite improved sentiment in the economy, the labour market has not yet managed to turn the corner. There is still a lack of orders for new hires," IFO comments.
- In manufacturing, the indicator declined for the first time after 5 consecutive increases, to a balance of -19.9 (-15.1 prior).
- Construction meanwhile, at +1.6, saw the first positive print since September 2024. Following the German fiscal plans detailed Tuesday, analysts noted some employment shift into the construction sector might be likely as the sector is likely to benefit from the government's investment push.
- Trade and services both saw opposing moves relative to how they developed last month - see chart below.
- 'Hard' German labour market data is scheduled for next Tuesday, with the (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate expected to tick up 0.1pp to 6.4%.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BONDS: US Treasuries and Gilt Roll update
US Treasuries and the Gilt Roll pace update, these are all but done, and September will now be quoted as the front Months:
- WNA: 86%%.
- USA: 87%.
- UXY: 80%.
- TYA: 80%.
- FVA: 82%.
- TUA: 80%.
- Gilt: 92%.
SOFR: SFRU6/Z6/H7 Fly Sold
Heavy turnover in the SFRU6/Z6/H7 fly in early London trade, ~38K changing hands at -6.0. ~30K of which has been sold (flow was initially triggered by a 25K lot seller).
SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686/700 - High Apr 25 / Intraday high
- PRICE: $33.292 @ 08:12 BST May 28
- SUP 1: $31.651 - Low May 15
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and recent gains reinforce this condition. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.651, the May 15 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
