AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (H6) Marked Lower

• The 10-Yr future ended Wednesday down -0-03 at 112-22 having reached 112-30+ earlier, before fading into the close.  The move higher had taken TYZ5 above the 50-day EMA briefly, only for it to settle back below.  The 10-Yr has opened lower by -02 at 112-20

Cash was weak with FOMC minutes and news on data releases reshaping rate expectations, particularly for the December cut.  Yields were up to +3bps higher in some parts of the curve as all maturities leaked higher in yield.

• The 2-Yr is up +1.9bps to 3.594%
• The 5-Yr is up +2.4bps to 3.71%
• The 10-Yr is up +2.3bps at 4.139%
• The 30-Yr is up +2.4bps to 4.758%

• From the FOMC minutes, the passage on current policy restrictiveness in the October minutes repeats the September's edition in noting that "participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive."  
• The minutes show the ongoing support to end QT by December.  
• Sticky inflation and moderate softness in the labour market remain the concern yet a clear split withing the committee when it comes to a further cut was evident.  
• The BLS noted that some October jobs data would be rolled into a report to be published after the next FED meeting, which seriously questions the ability for voting members to make an accurate call on rates, thereby firming up odds for a hold.  
• Corporate issuance topped US$6.8bn Wednesday.
• The US$16bn 20-Yr auction was weaker than prior 20-Yr auctions with a bid to cover down to 2.41x from 2.73x prior.  
• (*): Dec'25 at -7bp, Jan'26 at -20.1bp, Mar'26 at -30.3bp (-33.4bp), Apr'26 at -38.1bp (-41.1bp).

Lower Fed pricing, higher US dollar (BBDXY +0.5%) and yields didn’t prevent gold still posting a rise on Wednesday although it is well off its intraday high as these developments did provide some pressure. Bullion reached $4132.86/oz before trending down to $4055.68. It finished up 0.3% to $4077.98. 

• The OIS market reduced the chance of a December Fed rate cut to 37% from 50% after the October payroll data was officially cancelled adding to opacity around economic conditions and the October FOMC meeting minutes showed that at the time there was only minority support for another cut in December. Our US analysts believe that Q3 GDP and November payrolls & CPI should be released before the 10 December decision.
• Gold breached resistance at $4106.7, 17 November high, on Wednesday but was unable to hold the break. On the downside, the level to watch is $3937.4, 50-day EMA. The bull trigger is at $4245.2.
• Silver rose 1.3% to $51.356 after reaching $52.468. It then fell to $50.381, above support at $49.363. The bull trigger is at $54.480. The metal is 5.5% higher in November.

• RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
• RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
• RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12  
• PRICE: 96.235 @ 15:27 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: 96.135 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
• SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24

Prices slid sharply on the better-than-expected jobs data, pushing prices through first support at 96.280. This makes for a fresh contract low, exposing 95.900 on the continuation chart for direction. The slower pricing for additional RBA easing should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.900 as the next major support.