BOBL TECHS: (H6) Maintains A Softer Tone
* RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance * RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27 * RES 2: 116.960 High D...
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 04-Nov | 0740 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote Speech At Bulgarian National Bank |
| 04-Nov | 0745 | FR | Budget Balance |
| 04-Nov | 0945 | EU | ECB Lagarde At Bulgarian National Bank Conference |
| 05-Nov | 0700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 05-Nov | 0745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05-Nov | 0815 | ES | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI |
| 05-Nov | 0845 | IT | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI |
| 05-Nov | 0850 | FR | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Nov | 0855 | DE | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Nov | 0900 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05-Nov | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 05-Nov | 1000 | EU | EZ PPI |
| 06-Nov | 0700 | DE | Industrial Production |
| 06-Nov | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 06-Nov | 0810 | EU | ECB Schnabel At ECB Money Market Conference |
| 06-Nov | 0830 | EU | S&P Construction PMI / ECB De Guindos Natixis Webinar |
| 06-Nov | 1000 | EU | EZ Retail Sales |
| 06-Nov | 1830 | EU | ECB Lane At IMF Conference |
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.1728 High Oct 17
- RES 2: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.1577/1618 Low Oct 22 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.1514 @ 06:07 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 1.1498 Low Nov 3
- SUP 2: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
A bear leg in EURUSD remains intact. Last week’s move down resulted in a breach of an important support at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Note that 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, has also been cleared. An extension of the bear leg would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. First resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 17 high.
BUND TECHS: (Z5) Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 130.07 High Oct 24
- RES 1: 129.42129.73 20-day EMA / High Oct 28
- PRICE: 129.20 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 129.06 Low Nov 3
- SUP 2: 128.92 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7
Bund futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. A bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. However, price has pierced a key support at 129.13, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 128.92, a Fibonacci retracement. First important resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.
