SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Corrective Phase Extends

• RES 4: 106.975 High Dec 1 
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 106.885 Low Dec 2   
• RES 1: 106.835 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 106.790 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 106.787 3.236 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing  
• SUP 2: 106.776 3.382 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.768 3.500 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.759 3.618 proj of the Nov 21 - 24 - 26 minor price swing 

A sharp sell-off in Schatz futures last week and a bearish start to this week’s session, confirms a continuation of a bear cycle that started mid-October.  Note that on the continuation chart, MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.787 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 106.945, the Dec 3 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. 

Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium and Italy are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E2.53bln in first round operations, down from E28.0bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E1.5bln of the 11-month Nov 18, 2026 Bubill.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E0.5-1.5bln of the 2.5-month Feb 26, 2026 DTC and E0.5-1.5bln of the 5.5-month May 28, 2026 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to a combined E7.5bln of 14/21/27/51-week BTFs: E3.1-3.5bln of the new 14-week Mar 18, 2026 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 21-week Jun 5, 2026 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the 27-week Jun 17, 2026 BTF and E1.3-1.7bln of the 51-week Dec 2, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Spain will look to sell the 3-month Mar 6, 2026 letras and the 9-month Sep 4, 2026 letras. The auction size will be announced today.
• Also tomorrow morning, Belgium will look to issue a combined E2.8-3.2bln of TCs: An indicative E1.2bln of the 3-month Mar 12, 2026 TC and an indicative E1.8bln of the new 12-month Dec 10, 2026 TC.
• Finally on Wednesday morning, Italy will look to come to the market with E9.0bln of the new 12-month Dec 14, 2026 BOT.

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17   
• RES 3: 1.3452 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3416 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 1.3385 High Dec 04
• PRICE: 1.3330 @ 06:32 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 1.3264 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3226 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180/25 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 26 
• SUP 4: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger       

A bull theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The breach of  resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3264, undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.3452, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3226, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would be a bearish development.