SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Corrective Phase

• RES 4: 184.53 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 183.43 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 183.16 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 181.99 @ 06:52 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 181.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 178.98/178.95 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 176.40 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 182.01, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the trend. Sights are on 184.53, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 181.07, the 20-day EMA.

See the full document here for a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, a recap of this week and a summary of 2026 funding plans released so far.

• The only scheduled operation in the upcoming week is a Belgian ORI operation for which we pencil in issuance of E0.5bln.
• Issuance plans for 2026 from Germany (Thursday), Italy (likely Friday) and potentially Greece and Portugal are likely as well as the H1-26 plan from the EU. We also expect confirmation from Finland (Friday) and France for their 2026 funding plans.
• NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week will see redemptions of E4.1bln, with the vast majority (E4.0bln) from a formerly long 3-year EFSF bond. Coupon payments for the week total E1.9bln of which E1.3bln are Italian, E0.3bln from the EU and E0.3bln from the EFSF. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E5.5bln.
• We summarise 2026 funding plans from Austria, Belgium, the ESM/EFSF, Finland, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.95/157.89 High Dec 9 / High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 155.10 @ 06:43 GMT Dec 15
• SUP 1: 154.35 Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 153.95 50-day EMA and a key support area  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The trend condition in USDJPY is bullish and the move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 appears to have been a correction. Furthermore, the recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. However, the latest retracement exposes support at 153.95, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 158.00.