BOBL TECHS: (H6) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 116.770 High Dec 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 116.580 High Dec 5
- RES 2: 116.500 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 116.310 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 116.290 @ 06:03 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 115.920/720 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
- SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, the condition remains bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 116.217, and this signals scope for a climb towards 116.500. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 115.720, the Dec 10 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.
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BOBL TECHS: (H6) Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27
- RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1
- RES 1: 116.580/770 High Dec 5 / 3
- PRICE: 116.210 @ 06:11 GMT Dec 8
- SUP 1: 116.171 2.618 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
- SUP 2: 116.117 2.764 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.030 3.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.000 Round number support
The trend theme in Bobl futures is bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract is again trading lower, today. Price last week breached support 116.790, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 116.171 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. First important resistance is at 116.770, the Dec 3 high.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 08-Dec | 1700 | --- | BOE Taylor Panel on Growth/Wealth/Debt |
| 08-Dec | 1830 | --- | BOE Lombardelli Panel on Women in Economics |
| 09-Dec | 0001 | Nov | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 09-Dec | 1415 | --- | Lombardelli, Ramsden, Dhingra, Mann at TSC |
| 10-Dec | 1000 | --- | Chancellor Reeves Testifies at TSC on Budget |
| 10-Dec | 1045 | --- | BOE Bailey Pre-recorded Chat on Financial Stability |
| 11-Dec | 0001 | Nov | RICS House Prices |
| 11-Dec | 1000 | --- | BOE Bailey Gives Evidence At Covid-19 Inquiry |
| 12-Dec | 0700 | Oct | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 12-Dec | 0930 | Nov | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 16-Dec | 0700 | Oct/Nov | Labour Market Report |
| 16-Dec | 0930 | Dec | S&P Global Manuf / Serv / Comp PMI flash |
| 17-Dec | 0001 | Nov | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 17-Dec | 0700 | Nov | Consumer Inflation Report / Producer Prices |
| 17-Dec | 1100 | Dec | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 18-Dec | 1200 | --- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
CROSS ASSET: Bunds Sell Off & EUR Rallies, Schnabel Comfortable With Mkt Pricing
Bunds under pressure after ECB Executive Board member Schnabel notes that she is “comfortable” with markets pricing the next move from the ECB as a hike, pointing to a more positive economic outlook since the Bank issued its most recent round of forecast.
- Schnabel also highlighted services inflation as the Bank’s most important challenge.
- Bund futures test projection support at 127.80. A break there would expose the next projection of the same move (the Nov 12-20-26 price swing) at 127.57.
- Elsewhere, EUR/USD firms to 1.1672, with Fibonacci resistance located at 1.1694. The bullish technical theme in the pair remains intact.
- Euribor futures sell off on the headlines, last flat to -4.5, strip bear steepens. ERZ6 trades to the lowest level seen since April, 97.900. Next support 97.875.
