BOBL TECHS: (H6) Bounce Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27
- RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1
- RES 1: 116.320/770 High Dec 8 / 3
- PRICE: 116.100 @ 06:03 GMT Dec 11
- SUP 1: 115.720 Low Dec 10
- SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
- SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
The trend theme in Bobl futures remains bearish - the latest impulsive sell-off reinforces a bear theme. Price has breached support at 116.790, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 115.660 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend is oversold, stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. First important resistance is at 116.770, the Dec 3 high.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 11-Nov | 0820 | EU | ECB Lagarde Video Message at Bank of Albania |
| 11-Nov | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 12-Nov | 0700 | DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 12-Nov | 0900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 12-Nov | 1045 | EU | ECB Schnabel Speech at BNP Paribas |
| 12-Nov | 1140 | EU | ECB de Guindos at International Banking Conference |
| 12-Nov | --- | EU | ECB Lagarde, Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting |
| 13-Nov | 1000 | EU | EZ Industrial Production |
| 13-Nov | --- | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting in Brussels |
| 13-Nov | 1300 | EU | ECB Elderson Moderates Climate and Banks Panel |
| 14-Nov | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Nov | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 14-Nov | 0900 | IT | Foreign Trade |
| 14-Nov | 1000 | EU | GDP 2nd Est (Flash) / Trade Balance |
| 14-Nov | 1030 | EU | ECB Elderson Keynote at ECB Banking Supervision Forum |
| 14-Nov | 1330 | EU | ECB Elderson Remarks at COP30 Finance Day |
| 14-Nov | 1500 | EU | ECB Lane Panel on International Macro & Finance |
| 15-Nov | 1330 | EU | ECB Schnabel Chairs Panel at Econ/FinStab Conference |
BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Cycle
- RES 4: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance
- RES 3: 118.770 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
- RES 1: 118.201 20-day EMA.
- PRICE: 118.020 @ 05:37 GMT Nov 11
- SUP 1: 117.900 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.710 Low Oct 6
- SUP 4: 117.630 Low Oct 1
A short-term bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact for now. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday, reinforcing a bear theme. Price is through 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. This signals scope for an extension towards 117.824, the 76.4% Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 118.201, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal a possible reversal.
CROSS ASSET: Slight Risk Off As We Approach London Cross Over
A little bit of risk off as we approach the London cross over. US equity futures have dipped into the red, although losses are modest at this stage. Not much beyond -0.10-0.20%. The earlier WSJ article on rare earths potentially weighing at the margins. "China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms, according to people familiar with the plan." (see this link).
Regional Asia Pac equities are mostly off earlier highs as well. Few markets are left in the green.
Also note Trump's Truth Social Post around the magnitude of unwinding investment flows if SCOTUS rules unfavourably on tariffs. Focus will also be on how quickly the government re-opens, with the afternoon Wednesday vote (US time)
In the FX space, AUD/JPY is back under 100.50, session highs rest at 100.875.
US Tsy futures are around flat, seeing little direction so far today but are up from lows, last 112-21+ for TYZ5.
