BOBL TECHS: (H5) Short-Term Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 117.600 High Feb 13 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 117.570 High Feb 25
- PRICE: 117.430 @ 06:02 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 116.870 Low Feb 19 and a short-term bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
A bear threat in Bobl futures remains present despite the latest recovery - a correction. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and attention is on key short-term resistance at 117.600, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 116.870, the Feb 19 low. A break would resume the bear cycle.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 27-Jan | 810 | EU | ECB's Lagarde lecture organised by Hungarian central bank |
| 27-Jan | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 27-Jan | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 27-Jan | 1535 | EU | ECB's Lagarde remarks at IHRD occasion |
| 28-Jan | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 28-Jan | 900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 28-Jan | 1430 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel on future of markets |
| 28-Jan | 1700 | EU | ECB's Lagarde to mee t with Ursula von der Leyen |
| 29-Jan | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 29-Jan | 800 | ES | GDP (p) |
| 29-Jan | 900 | EU | M3 |
| 29-Jan | 900 | IT | ISTAT Consumer/ Business Confidence |
BUND TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: 133.86 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 133.31 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 132.57 High Jan 6
- RES 1: 132.15/22 20-day EMA / High Jan 22
- PRICE: 131.59 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24
- SUP 2 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
The pullback from recent highs in Bund futures appear corrective and a short-term bull cycle remains in play for now. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It continues to suggest scope for a corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 132.15, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen the bullish theme. The bear trigger is at 130.28, the Jan 15 low.
US TSY OPTIONS: TYH5 106.50 Puts Lifted
Recent flow in the TYH5 106.50 puts saw paper pay 0-07 on 20K
