GERMANY: Greens-No Progress On Debt Brake Talks, Bundestag Meets @ 1200CET
With the Constitutional Court's decision on petitions from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and far-left Die Linke to halt the passage of the debt brake reform still pending, the old Bundestag convenes today at 1200CET (0700ET, 1100GMT) to begin debate on the package.
- With a two-thirds majority required to pass the debt brake reform, the stance of the environmentalist Greens remains crucial. Parliamentary group leader Katharina Dröge said to ARD earlier that due to the lack of progress in talks with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) "it remains the case that we Greens will not support this draft bill." Green lawmaker Britta Hasselmann has also said that 'no progress' has been made in talks.
- As well as the AfD and Linke petitions, Sevim Dagdelen from the left-wing nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has said that he intends to file an urgent application with the court to halt the progress of the package.
- If the package passes the first vote after a 3 1/2 hour debate, it will go to the committee stage before a second Bundestag session on 18 March for a final vote.
- The Constitutional Court could release its decision at any time, but it certainly will do so before 18 March.
- Should the Court rule against the AfD/Linke/BSW petitions, and the Bundestag pass the measures, it will then go to the Bundesrat, where the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens also hold a 2/3 majority.
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USDJPY TECHS: Oversold But Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 3: 154.70 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 153.72 Low Jan 27
- RES 1: 152.89 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 151.93 @ 08:26 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 150.93 Low Feb 07
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. 151.06, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 149.69, the Dec 9 low. Firm resistance is seen at 154.70, the 50-day EMA. Note that the pair has entered oversold territory. A recovery would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold condition to unwind.
EURGBP TECHS: Trading Below The Pivot Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.8349 @ 08:25 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP gains last week appear to have undermined a recent bearish threat, however, the pullback from last Thursday’s high does highlight a developing bearish threat, once again. 0.8378, the Jan 6 high, has been defined as a ley short-term resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a continuation lower would open 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and bear trigger.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Below Last Week’s High
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.2348 @ 08:22 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / Jan 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
GBPUSD is fading further off the Feb 5 high. The pair has recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.
